Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

Name: What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T21:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$46.45K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

Vol

$46.45K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $46.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $46.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?	Poly	43%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?	Poly	27%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?	Poly	25%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?	Poly	13%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	Poly	6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$46.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that sess

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (80 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that sess

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $46.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $25.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.80)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $24.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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