Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

Paul Cézanne: Arlequin sale price?

Total Volume

$7.25K

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Paul Cézanne: Arlequin sale price?

Vol

$7.25K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $7.25K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $7.25K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	72%
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $100000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	58%
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	57%
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $120000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	55%
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $90000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	52%
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $150000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	52%
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $80000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	51%
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $130000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	50%
Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $160000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?	Kalshi	43%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

Top Probability

$7.25K

Volume

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About This Event

November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection) If the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's is above X during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST, Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot Sold” on the Sotheby’s website. If the value is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted to USD using the prevailing exchange

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Paul Cézanne: Arlequin sale price?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)

If the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's is above X during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST, Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot Sold” on the Sotheby’s website. If the value is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted to USD using the prevailing exchange

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's is above $90M during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot So"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $90000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $80000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $160000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $150000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $920
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $816
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $130000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $120000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $555
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $100000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 17, 2027): Vol $297
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

Paul Cézanne: Arlequin sale price?

Volume$7.25K

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

If the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's is above $110M during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot S

KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $100000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $100000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

If the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's is above $100M during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot S

KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

If the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's is above $140M during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot S

KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $120000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $120000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

If the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's is above $120M during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot S

KALSHI

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $90000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $90000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

If the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's is above $90M during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from the amount displayed under “Lot So

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54¢

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Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

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Events (1)

Paul Cézanne: Arlequin sale price?

Markets (9)

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $100000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $100000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $120000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $120000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $90000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $90000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

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Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Paul Cézanne: Arlequin sale price?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $110000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $100000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $100000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $140000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $120000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $120000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $90000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

Will the lot sold price of the Arlequin by Paul Cézanne on Sotheby's be above $90000000 during the live auction beginning November 18, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST (Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection)?

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