$9.87K
1
11
$9.87K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fah
Prediction markets currently give Warsaw's April 18 high temperature reaching 17°C a roughly 2 in 5 chance. This makes it the single most likely outcome, but it is essentially a coin flip. The market shows significant uncertainty, with meaningful bets spread across adjacent outcomes like 16°C and 18°C. This reflects the inherent difficulty of pinpointing a precise daily high two days in advance, even with modern forecasting.
Two main factors are shaping these odds. First, Warsaw's weather in mid-April is notoriously variable. Historical averages for the date sit around 13-14°C, but swings of several degrees above or below that are common. A forecast of 17°C is a mild and pleasant outlier, but not an extreme one.
Second, the specific weather pattern setting up for this date involves a high-pressure system likely to bring clearer skies and warmer air into the region. However, the exact positioning and strength of this system will determine whether the temperature peaks at 16, 17, or 18 degrees. Traders are weighing the latest short-term model runs, which can still shift.
The only date that matters is the day itself, April 18. The official high temperature will be recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Markets will remain active and volatile until the day is over, reacting to each new weather model update. The most significant signal to watch will be the forecast issued late on April 17, which will have the highest confidence.
For short-term weather outcomes, prediction markets often perform well as a collective synthesis of forecast models and local knowledge. They are typically more accurate than a single weather app. The main limitation here is the fundamental unpredictability of weather at the daily scale. A sudden cloud bank or shift in wind direction could easily change the result by a degree, which is why the probability for any single degree is currently low.
The Polymarket contract asking if Warsaw's high temperature will be exactly 17°C on April 18, 2026, is trading at 42¢, implying a 42% probability. This price signals the market views a 17°C high as the single most likely outcome, but still sees a 58% combined chance for a different temperature. The other ten contracts covering a range from 10°C to 23°C show fragmented liquidity, with no other single temperature holding a probability above 20%. Total market volume is a thin $10,000, indicating low trader conviction.
The 42% probability for 17°C is anchored to Warsaw's historical climate data for mid-April. The average high temperature for the city around April 18 is approximately 13-14°C. A forecast of 17°C represents a notably warm but plausible spring day, aligning with a pattern of occasional warm spells. Current long-range weather models, while unreliable this far out, likely suggest a stable high-pressure system rather than extreme heat or a cold snap. Traders are pricing the modal outcome, not the average.
This market will be almost entirely determined by meteorological forecasts in the final 48-72 hours before resolution. The current odds are based on climatology, not a specific forecast. A major shift will occur when major weather services like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) or local Polish forecasts publish their detailed predictions for April 18. A model consensus predicting a strong warm front could rapidly shift liquidity toward the 19-22°C brackets. Conversely, a predicted rainy, cloudy day would boost probabilities for the 12-15°C range. The thin liquidity means prices could swing dramatically on minor forecast updates.
With only $10,000 in volume spread across 11 outcomes, this market has high slippage. The 42% price for 17°C is a weak signal. In thinly traded weather markets, early prices often over-represent the "central" climatological guess. The real trading action and price discovery will happen on April 16-17 as actual forecast data becomes reliable. Traders should view the current spread as a placeholder, not a confident prediction. The market structure itself, with many finely divided temperature buckets, fragments liquidity and makes the current leading probability less meaningful than in a binary market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 18, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Weather Underground's historical records for the EPWA station, which is the primary international airport serving Warsaw, Poland. Participants will predict which temperature range contains the official daily high, measured in degrees Celsius. This type of market transforms a routine meteorological observation into a tradable financial instrument, allowing individuals to speculate on short-term weather outcomes. Interest stems from both meteorological enthusiasts tracking seasonal patterns and prediction market participants analyzing historical climate data to inform their bets. The specific date in mid-April is significant as it falls within Poland's transitional spring period, where temperatures can vary widely between lingering winter chills and early summer warmth. Warsaw's climate, classified as humid continental, experiences considerable daily temperature swings during this season, making precise forecasts challenging. The use of an airport weather station provides standardized, reliable data collected under World Meteorological Organization guidelines, ensuring the market's resolution is objective and verifiable. Trading activity often increases as the date approaches, reflecting updated weather model outputs and short-term forecast revisions from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.
Warsaw's climate records extend back to the 18th century, with systematic observations beginning at various sites before consolidating at the airport station. The location for official Warsaw measurements moved to Okęcie, now Chopin Airport, in the mid-20th century. This relocation is important because urban heat island effects differ between the airport and the city center, with the airport typically recording slightly lower extreme highs due to its more open surroundings. Historical data shows significant variability for mid-April. For example, on April 18, 2018, the high reached 24.2°C, an unusually warm spring day. In contrast, April 18, 2013, saw a high of only 6.5°C, with snowfall reported. The all-time record high for any April day in Warsaw is 30.4°C, set on April 22, 2012. The lowest maximum temperature recorded for an April 18 occurred in 1928, at just 2.0°C. This historical range of over 22 degrees Celsius for the same calendar date illustrates the high uncertainty that makes the prediction market compelling. Long-term climate trends also provide context. According to IMGW data, the average April temperature in Warsaw has increased by approximately 1.5°C since the 1950s, contributing to a greater probability of warmer spring days in recent decades.
Beyond the immediate trading activity, this market reflects broader interests in quantifying weather uncertainty and its economic impacts. Accurate temperature predictions for specific dates are valuable to multiple Warsaw industries. The energy sector adjusts heating and cooling demand forecasts, agricultural planners assess frost risks for early crops, and event organizers for outdoor activities make logistical decisions based on expected conditions. A prediction market that aggregates many participants' beliefs can sometimes produce a more accurate forecast than individual models, a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds. This specific market also serves as a microcosm for studying how climate change influences short-term weather probabilities. If warming trends continue, the distribution of outcomes for an April 18 high temperature should gradually shift toward higher ranges over time. For the city's residents, the outcome determines whether the day feels like an extension of winter or an early preview of summer, influencing everything from clothing choices to leisure activities. The result is a concrete data point in the ongoing record of Warsaw's climate.
As of early 2026, seasonal forecast models for the upcoming spring are being published. These long-range outlooks, such as those from ECMWF and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, provide probabilistic forecasts for temperature anomalies across Europe for April 2026. Current predictions suggest a slightly increased likelihood of above-average temperatures for Central Europe during the spring season, influenced by ongoing global sea surface temperature patterns and atmospheric circulation forecasts. The market for April 18, 2026, is currently in a pre-forecast phase, with trading volume expected to increase significantly as the date approaches within the 10-15 day range of more reliable numerical weather prediction models.
The maximum temperature in Warsaw usually occurs between 3 PM and 5 PM local time. This is when solar heating peaks during the day. The official daily high is the highest reading from the 24-hour period ending at midnight.
Specific daily temperature forecasts are not possible years in advance. Seasonal outlooks can only predict broad temperature anomalies, such as whether a month might be warmer or cooler than average. Reliable daily forecasts typically extend only 7-10 days ahead.
Airport stations like EPWA follow strict international standards for instrument placement and calibration, ensuring consistent, high-quality data. They are less affected by local microclimates and urban heat distortion, providing a more representative measurement for the broader region.
Prediction market rules typically include contingency plans. If the primary station data is unavailable or corrupted, the resolution would default to an agreed-upon backup source, such as the nearest reliable official station or a specified alternative data provider, as defined in the market contract.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
11 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 27% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 11% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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