Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHISports

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread

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$919.53

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Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread

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$919.53

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Polymarket

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markets · $919.53

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0.0%avg

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $919.53

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?	Kalshi	52%
Will Pablo Carreno Busta win at least 1.5 more games than Felix Auger-Aliassime?	Kalshi	21%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 6.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?	Kalshi	15%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$919.53

Volume

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About This Event

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (Oct 12) If the game differential in favor X across the full match is above Y games in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 32. If the match does not occur, signaled by a ball being played, due to a player

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (Oct 12)

If the game differential in favor X across the full match is above Y games in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 32. If the match does not occur, signaled by a ball being played, due to a player

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the game differential in favor of Pablo Carreno Busta across the full match is above 1.5 games in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The following market refers to the P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $920
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Pablo Carreno Busta win at least 1.5 more games than Felix Auger-Aliassime?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 6.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $920
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHISports

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread

Volume$919.53

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KALSHI

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

If the game differential in favor of Felix Auger-Aliassime across the full match is above 3.5 games in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The following market refers to the

KALSHI

Will Pablo Carreno Busta win at least 1.5 more games than Felix Auger-Aliassime?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Pablo Carreno Busta win at least 1.5 more games than Felix Auger-Aliassime?

If the game differential in favor of Pablo Carreno Busta across the full match is above 1.5 games in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The following market refers to the P

KALSHI

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 6.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 6.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

If the game differential in favor of Felix Auger-Aliassime across the full match is above 6.5 games in the Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 32, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The following market refers to the

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29¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/WQwKHO" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread"></iframe>

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Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread

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Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

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Events (1)

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread

Markets (3)

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

Will Pablo Carreno Busta win at least 1.5 more games than Felix Auger-Aliassime?

Will Pablo Carreno Busta win at least 1.5 more games than Felix Auger-Aliassime?

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 6.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 6.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

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Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

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Pablo Carreno Busta vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: Game Spread

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 3.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

Will Pablo Carreno Busta win at least 1.5 more games than Felix Auger-Aliassime?

Will Pablo Carreno Busta win at least 1.5 more games than Felix Auger-Aliassime?

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 6.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win at least 6.5 more games than Pablo Carreno Busta?

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