Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETOther

October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Name: October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
End: 2026-11-29T17:14:42.000Z

Total Volume

$14.05K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Vol

$14.05K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.05K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.05K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Poly	88%
Will October 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	Poly	14%
Will October 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	Poly	1%
Will October 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$14.05K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (h

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
**Category:** Other | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 29, 2026 (49 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record.

Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (h

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record.

Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties wit"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.59)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will October 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will October 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $764
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will October 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will October 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 29, 2026): Vol $359
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETOther