GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

Name: Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
End: 2026-09-20T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$425.57K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

Vol

$425.57K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $425.57K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $425.57K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$425.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $425.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $154.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $425.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics