Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?

Name: How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?
End: 2026-10-14T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$416.81

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How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?

Vol

$416.81

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $416.81

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $416.81

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?	Poly	82%
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 24 and 28 million views this week?	Poly	26%
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 32 million views this week?	Poly	19%
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have less than 16 million views this week?	Poly	11%
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 16 and 20 million views this week?	Poly	11%
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 28 and 32 million views this week?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$416.81

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve according to the views figure of the movie that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie, according to Netflix. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. If the reported views

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 14, 2026 (3 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve according to the views figure of the movie that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie, according to Netflix. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically.

If the reported views

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve according to the views figure of the movie that this update ranks as the #1 global Net"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $417
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have less than 16 million views this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 16 and 20 million views this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $151
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 24 and 28 million views this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 28 and 32 million views this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $167
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 32 million views this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $66
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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