BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket event titled "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T07:15:00.000Z [1]. This is the close time listed in the contract, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T14:22:37.306Z [1]. Those timestamps describe when the record was captured, so the prices below should not be read as live quotes. In that record, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record. The record lists the market status as "active" [1]. The evidence contains no volume figures, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence covers one market from one provider event on one platform. The coverage record shows one saved market, all of which was included, with no partial sample [1]. The sample warning adds that inclusion does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. No other contracts or platforms are in the evidence, so no comparison is possible.
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are. The observation time is earlier than both the time range in the title and the listed end time. It contains no Chainlink price data for the window, so the outcome cannot be inferred from this snapshot. Readers should check the rules, the named Chainlink data stream, and the listed end time directly, and should review the market again for its current state, since this record cannot show it.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term price contract on the BNB/USD pair, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET" and listed in the crypto category [1]. Its outcomes are "Up" and "Down". The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The source for resolution is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, not any other data feed or spot market. The contract rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink stream and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. The rules therefore compare a time-weighted average over the window with the starting price, so a single price at the end of the window does not decide the outcome on its own. The record lists a provider end time of 2026-10-28T07:15:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed end time in the contract data and should not be read as a confirmed settlement time. The provider status was recorded as active when the source was saved, and the observation and retrieval times are recorded separately in the dataset. Any price shown alongside this contract is a snapshot from the observation time, not a live or executable quote.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average price of BNB, as reported by Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, is at or above the price at the start of the stated 15-minute window [1]. Because it uses a time-weighted average and a Chainlink data stream rather than a single trade price, the result depends on how the stream records prices across the whole window [1]. Traders can read the contract as a view on that specific measured outcome, not as a general forecast of BNB's price.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes the contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What makes the contract resolve to Down?
It resolves to "Down" when the condition for Up is not met, meaning the time-weighted average over the range is below the price at the start of the range [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the contract is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the title time range match the listed end time?
The title gives the window as 3:00AM-3:15AM ET, and the contract data lists an end time of 2026-10-28T07:15:00.000Z [1]. The listed end time is a provider field and is shown as recorded, not as a confirmed settlement event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.