Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30? | PredictPedia

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Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

Name: Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.88

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Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $13.88

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.88

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

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Market	Platform	Price
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?	Poly	53%

AI Analysis

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53%

Top Probability

$13.88

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The re

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (165 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.

The re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

An"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14
* **Total Liquidity:** $276
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

164d 12h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

53¢

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Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

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Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)