Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIWorld

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

Total Volume

$35.92K

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Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

Vol

$35.92K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $35.92K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $35.92K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$35.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2099 If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2099

If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $35.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.66M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2099): Vol $35.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

8¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/WXS1gv" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?"></iframe>

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Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

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Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)