
$7.13K
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9

$7.13K
1
9
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This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on China's annual inflation rate for 2026, specifically the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the twelve months ending in December 2026. The official data will be published by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which calculates the CPI by tracking price changes for a basket of goods and services across urban and rural areas. Inflation is a core macroeconomic indicator that reflects changes in purchasing power, influences monetary policy decisions by the People's Bank of China, and affects everything from household budgets to business investment plans. The 2026 forecast is significant because it falls within China's 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) and will provide early evidence of economic performance under the subsequent 15th Five-Year Plan, which begins in 2026. Analysts monitor China's inflation to gauge domestic demand strength, the effectiveness of government stimulus measures, and potential spillover effects on global commodity prices and supply chains. Interest in this specific annual figure stems from its use in real wage calculations, its impact on debt servicing costs for local governments and corporations, and its role in setting policy interest rates. Market participants also watch for discrepancies between official CPI figures and alternative measures of inflation or public perception, which can sometimes differ.
China's inflation history shows distinct cycles influenced by reform, crisis, and policy. The period from 1994 to 1997 saw very high inflation, peaking at 24.1% in 1994, driven by price liberalization and rapid growth. This was followed by a prolonged period of low inflation and even deflationary pressures from 1998 to 2002 after the Asian Financial Crisis. The global commodity boom of the 2000s pushed inflation higher again, with a peak of 5.9% in 2008. A more recent significant period was 2010-2012, when inflation averaged around 5%, prompting a series of interest rate hikes by the PBOC. The decade from 2012 to 2021 was characterized by generally moderate inflation, with the official CPI averaging about 2.1%, though this period also included episodes of high food price inflation, particularly for pork. The COVID-19 pandemic created unusual volatility. Annual CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2020, fell to 0.9% in 2021 due to weak demand, and then rose to 2.0% in 2022. In 2023, inflation was notably low at 0.2%, reflecting subdued domestic consumption and a property sector downturn. The government's official inflation target has been set at 'around 3%' for most years since 2015, though actual outcomes have often been below this level, indicating persistent challenges in stimulating demand-driven price growth.
China's inflation rate directly impacts the economic well-being of its 1.4 billion citizens. For households, especially lower-income groups, high inflation erodes purchasing power, while very low inflation or deflation can signal weak demand and hurt wage growth. For businesses, stable and predictable inflation is essential for investment planning and pricing strategies. Sharp deviations from the expected trend can lead to capital misallocation and inventory imbalances. On a macroeconomic level, the inflation rate is a critical input for monetary and fiscal policy. Persistent inflation above the PBOC's comfort zone could force tighter monetary policy, raising borrowing costs for local governments burdened with debt and for the vast property sector. Conversely, entrenched low inflation could limit the central bank's policy space and signal deeper structural weaknesses in the economy. Globally, as the world's second-largest economy and largest manufacturer, China's inflation influences global commodity prices and export prices for a vast range of goods. A significant rise in Chinese inflation could export price pressures worldwide, while very low inflation could contribute to global disinflationary trends.
As of late 2024, China's economy is grappling with subdued inflation pressures. The CPI for September 2024 was reported at 0.5% year-on-year, remaining well below the government's target. Core CPI has also stayed muted. The primary deflationary forces include a prolonged downturn in the property market, which dampens demand for household goods and construction materials, and cautious consumer spending despite policy efforts to stimulate demand. The People's Bank of China has implemented modest monetary easing, including cuts to reserve requirements and policy rates, to counter these trends. However, these measures have yet to translate into sustained consumer price growth. Analysts are closely watching for signs of a turnaround in household confidence and for the impact of potential larger-scale fiscal stimulus.
The NBS calculates the CPI by tracking price changes for a fixed basket of over 600 goods and services across approximately 500 cities and counties. The basket weights are updated periodically based on household expenditure surveys. Food has a weighting of about 18-20%, a relatively high proportion compared to many developed economies.
Low inflation in 2024 is primarily driven by weak domestic consumer demand, a significant surplus in industrial capacity, and a continuing slump in the real estate sector. Falling pork prices, a key component, have also been a major factor pulling the headline number down.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. PPI deflation, as seen recently, often precedes or accompanies weak CPI inflation as lower factory costs eventually filter through to consumer prices.
The official inflation target for 2025 will be announced in the Government Work Report at the National People's Congress in March 2025. Based on recent precedent, it is likely to be set again at 'around 3%', though the focus will be on the policy measures announced to achieve it.
Low Chinese inflation helps keep import prices down for the United States, contributing to lower goods inflation. Conversely, if Chinese inflation were to rise sharply, it could increase the cost of imported goods from China for American consumers and businesses, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's inflation management.
The National Bureau of Statistics publishes CPI data monthly on its official English-language website (stats.gov.cn/english). Key releases include the monthly year-on-year and month-on-month figures, often accompanied by a breakdown by category (food, non-food, consumer goods, services).
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 39% |
![]() | Poly | 36% |
![]() | Poly | 10% |
![]() | Poly | 5% |
![]() | Poly | 4% |
![]() | Poly | 4% |
![]() | Poly | 3% |
![]() | Poly | 3% |
![]() | Poly | 1% |





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