Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Name: Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
End: 2026-10-27T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.49K

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Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Vol

$13.49K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.49K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.49K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Ra'am win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ra'am win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	95%
Will RZP-Zehut win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	85%
Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	49%
Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	39%
Will Blue & White win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$13.49K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". T

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 27, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

T

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $105.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will RZP-Zehut win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Ra'am win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $557
  DATA: [Yes: 94.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Blue & White win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $861
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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