$353.80K
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27
$353.80K
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27
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ATL If the next permanent head coach of the Atlanta Football Team is X then the market resolves to Yes. If no permanent head coach is selected before Jan 1, 2027, all markets resolve to No. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently price Klint Kubiak as the most likely candidate to become the next permanent head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, with his contract trading at approximately 56 cents, implying a 56% probability. This suggests the market views his hiring as more likely than not, but still sees significant uncertainty, with a 44% chance another candidate is selected. This market leads a field of 27 named candidates, which collectively have seen over $343,000 in trading volume, indicating moderate liquidity and serious speculative interest.
Two primary factors are elevating Kubiak’s odds. First, his direct connection to the current front office is pivotal. He is the son of longtime NFL coach Gary Kubiak and served as the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings in 2021 and the Denver Broncos in 2022, running a Shanahan-style offensive system that aligns with the preferences of Falcons General Manager Terry Fontenot and owner Arthur Blank. Second, recent reporting from credible NFL insiders has consistently linked Kubiak to the Falcons’ vacancy, framing him as a top contender. This combination of schematic fit and reported insider momentum is being priced in by the market.
The odds are highly sensitive to the official interview process and final ownership decisions. Key upcoming catalysts include the completion of second interviews and the potential hiring of a coach by other NFL teams, which would remove candidates from Atlanta’s board. A surprise decision by Arthur Blank to pursue a higher-profile, defensive-minded coach like Bill Belichick, whose contract is trading at a lower probability, would immediately crater Kubiak’s price. The market will react sharply to any credible leak before an official announcement, which could come before the end of January.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the identity of the next permanent head coach for the Atlanta Falcons of the National Football League (NFL). The market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific candidate, denoted as 'X', is hired for the position. Should the franchise fail to appoint a permanent head coach before January 1, 2027, all markets will resolve to 'No'. The market is designed to close early if the hiring event occurs. The topic has gained significant attention due to the Falcons' ongoing search for leadership following the dismissal of head coach Arthur Smith after the 2023 season, which concluded with a 7-10 record and a third consecutive losing campaign. The organization, owned by Arthur Blank, is at a critical juncture, possessing a talented roster that includes high draft picks like quarterback Desmond Ridder, running back Bijan Robinson, and tight end Kyle Pitts, yet has struggled to achieve consistent success. The coaching search is a pivotal decision that will shape the franchise's trajectory for years to come, influencing player development, offensive and defensive schemes, and the team's ability to compete in the competitive NFC South division. Interest in this market stems from the high stakes of NFL coaching hires, the public nature of the search process involving interviews and media speculation, and the direct impact a new coach will have on the team's performance and the city's sports landscape.
The Atlanta Falcons' head coaching history is marked by periods of stability and abrupt change. The franchise's most successful era under a single coach was with Dan Reeves, who led the team to its first Super Bowl appearance (Super Bowl XXXIII) in the 1998 season. The hiring of Mike Smith in 2008 ushered in a period of sustained competitiveness, including five playoff appearances in his first five seasons, but ended without a Super Bowl victory. The most consequential hire in recent history was Dan Quinn in 2015, who, alongside offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, guided the franchise to Super Bowl LI in the 2016 season, infamously losing after holding a 28-3 lead. Quinn was dismissed after an 0-5 start in 2020. His successor, Arthur Smith, was hired in 2021 after a successful stint as the Tennessee Titans' offensive coordinator. Smith's three-year tenure failed to produce a winning season or playoff berth, leading to his dismissal on January 8, 2024. This pattern reflects the NFL's 'win-now' pressure, especially for a team that has not won a playoff game since the 2017 season. The upcoming hire will be the seventh head coach under Arthur Blank's ownership, highlighting the cyclical challenge of finding a leader who can deliver a championship to a city that has never won one.
The selection of the Falcons' next head coach has significant ramifications beyond the football field. Economically, a successful hire can dramatically increase franchise valuation, boost local business revenue on game days, and enhance merchandise sales. A competitive team improves the value of media rights deals and makes the organization a more attractive destination for free agents, creating a positive financial cycle. For the city of Atlanta, the Falcons are a major civic institution. A winning team boosts civic pride and morale, provides a unifying force for the community, and enhances the city's national sports profile. Conversely, prolonged failure can lead to fan apathy, decreased ticket sales, and a negative perception of the sports market. Downstream consequences include the career trajectories of current players, whose development and success are heavily influenced by coaching. The decision also impacts hundreds of team employees and sets the strategic direction for the entire football operations department for the next half-decade or more.
As of late January 2024, the Atlanta Falcons are actively conducting a search for their next head coach. The process began immediately after dismissing Arthur Smith on January 8. The team has conducted interviews with numerous candidates, including both experienced head coaches like Bill Belichick and rising coordinators like Bobby Slowik and Mike Macdonald. The search is being led by owner Arthur Blank and general manager Terry Fontenot. With several other NFL teams also filling head coaching vacancies, the market is highly competitive. The Falcons' search is considered one of the most attractive openings due to the team's young offensive talent and significant salary cap flexibility.
Reported candidates have included former Patriots coach Bill Belichick, Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. The list evolves as interviews are conducted and other teams make hires.
The Atlanta Falcons' last playoff victory was on January 14, 2018, when they defeated the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Wild Card round. They have not won a postseason game since.
Arthur Blank has overseen the hiring of six head coaches since buying the team in 2002: Dan Reeves (retained), Jim Mora, Bobby Petrino, Mike Smith, Dan Quinn, and Arthur Smith. This count includes interim coaches.
Bill Belichick, after 24 seasons with the New England Patriots, became a free agent coach. He interviewed with the Atlanta Falcons, making them one of the few teams to formally consider the future Hall of Famer for their vacancy.
The primary challenges are solidifying the quarterback position, improving an underperforming offense despite high draft capital, building a consistent defense, and ending a six-year playoff drought in a division that has been winnable in recent seasons.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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27 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Klint Kubiak) | Kalshi | 59% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Kevin Stefanski) | Kalshi | 22% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Antonio Pierce) | Kalshi | 12% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Vance Joseph) | Kalshi | 12% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Mike Kafka) | Kalshi | 12% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Ryan Nielsen) | Kalshi | 12% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Mike McDaniel) | Kalshi | 8% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Todd Monken) | Kalshi | 4% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Matt LaFleur) | Kalshi | 3% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Steve Sarkisian) | Kalshi | 2% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Kirby Smart) | Kalshi | 2% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Mike Tomlin) | Kalshi | 2% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Mike McCarthy) | Kalshi | 2% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Mike LaFleur) | Kalshi | 2% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Jeff Hafley) | Kalshi | 2% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Kliff Kingsbury) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Chris Shula) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Aden Durde) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Anthony Weaver) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Robert Saleh) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (John Harbaugh) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Matt Nagy) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Jesse Minter) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Joe Brady) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Ejiro Evero) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Brian Flores) | Kalshi | 1% |
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Football Team? (Bill Belichick) | Kalshi | 1% |
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