Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Name: Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
End: 2026-10-25T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.59K

Events

Markets

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Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Vol

$12.59K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.59K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.59K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Poly	50%
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	Poly	32%
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	Poly	8%
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?	Poly	6%
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	Poly	5%
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	Poly	3%
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Poly	2%
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?	Poly	1%
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$12.59K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 25, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absol"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $256.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $265
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $775
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $167
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $186
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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