
$25.42K
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$25.42K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets currently price in a high probability that incumbent Kathy Hochul will secure the Democratic nomination for New York Governor in 2026. On Polymarket, shares for "Yes" trade near 90 cents, implying approximately a 90% chance. A probability this high suggests the market views her renomination as very likely, though not absolutely guaranteed. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract trades around 53 cents, indicating a 53% probability. This creates a significant 37-percentage-point spread between the two leading platforms. The collective volume of $171,000 across related markets indicates moderate trader interest and liquidity for a political event still over a year away.
The dominant market pricing, especially on Polymarket, reflects Hochul's substantial institutional advantages. As the sitting governor, she controls a powerful political apparatus, fundraising networks, and patronage. Historically, incumbent governors in New York face serious primary challenges only under conditions of profound scandal or weak electoral performance, neither of which currently applies to Hochul following her 2022 general election victory. Furthermore, the lack of a declared high-profile Democratic challenger with statewide name recognition and a viable funding base reinforces the incumbent's strong position. Markets are essentially pricing in the high barrier to entry for any potential opponent.
The primary risk to the current consensus, particularly the ultra-high Polymarket price, is the emergence of a credible, well-funded challenger from the party's progressive wing. A downturn in the state's economic outlook or a significant political scandal involving the administration before the primary filing deadlines could also rapidly shift probabilities. The wide spread between Polymarket and Kalshi suggests traders on each platform are weighing these risks differently. Kalshi's 53% price may incorporate a greater chance of a competitive primary, while Polymarket's 90% reflects strong confidence in the incumbent's advantage. This divergence presents a notable arbitrage opportunity, though it may persist due to differing platform user bases, liquidity, and trading restrictions.
The 37-point probability spread between Polymarket (90%) and Kalshi (53%) is unusually large for a major political event. This discrepancy likely stems from several factors. Polymarket's global, crypto-native user base may place a higher premium on incumbency power and historical patterns in U.S. gubernatorial politics. Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, might attract traders more attuned to local New York political dynamics and the potential for an intraparty challenge. The spread indicates a clear arbitrage opportunity for traders able to operate on both platforms, effectively betting the true probability lies somewhere between the two extremes. The gap may narrow as the primary season approaches and more definitive information about challengers emerges.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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12 markets tracked

No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
![]() | 52% | 51% | 1% |
![]() | 28% | 20% | 9% |
![]() | 17% | 17% | 0% |
![]() | 7% | 5% | 3% |
![]() | 6% | 1% | 5% |
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In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic Party; however, an overwhelm


This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Democratic Primar

If Hannah Pingree wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Hannah Pingree wins the party's nomination.


This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Democratic Primar

If Shenna Bellows wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Shenna Bellows wins the party's nomination.



This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Democratic Primar

If Troy Jackson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Troy Jackson wins the party's nomination.


This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Democratic Primar

If Angus King III wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Maine Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Angus King III wins the party's nomination.
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Polymarket
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Kalshi
$22.98K
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