Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

Name: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?
End: 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.74K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

Vol

$20.74K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.74K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.74K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?	Poly	99%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 15?	Poly	95%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?	Poly	66%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?	Poly	31%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 15?	Poly	3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 15?	Poly	1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $805 on October 15?	Poly	1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $800 on October 15?	Poly	1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $795 on October 15?	Poly	1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $785 on October 15?	Poly	1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on October 15?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$20.74K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 15, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 15, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $45.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $805 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $17
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $800 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $795 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $72
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $185
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $785 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $140
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $516
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $12.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

Volume$20.74K

Markets11

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POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 15, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published

POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 15?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 95.0¢No 4.9¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 15?

POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?

POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?

POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 15?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 2.9¢No 97.1¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 15?

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Oct 15, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

No exact saved pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/WqYR0b" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?"></iframe>

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S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

Markets (11)

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 15?

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Discussion

Next Market Deadline

Market Insights

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 15?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 15?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Deadline

Share

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