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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?

Name: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?
End: 2026-09-20T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$29.77K

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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?

Vol

$29.77K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $29.77K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $29.77K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	61%
Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	35%
Will SPD win 18-21 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	3%
Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	1%
Will SPD win 34 or more seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	1%
Will SPD win fewer than 18 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$29.77K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won dir

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.

This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won dir

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.

This market will resolve a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $29.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $118.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SPD win fewer than 18 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SPD win 18-21 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $11.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will SPD win 34 or more seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics