Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October

Total Volume

$8.98K

Events

Markets

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October

Vol

$8.98K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $8.98K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.98K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?	Kalshi	99%
Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.60?	Kalshi	95%
Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.58?	Kalshi	94%
Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.56?	Kalshi	87%
Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.54?	Kalshi	62%
Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.52?	Kalshi	43%
Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.50?	Kalshi	37%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$8.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

the week ending October 23, 2026 If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, “NFCI”, refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index, “ANFCI”, or any individual component or contribution to the NFCI. This market will resolve using the NFCI value for the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** the week ending October 23, 2026

If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, “NFCI”, refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index, “ANFCI”, or any individual component or contribution to the NFCI. This market will resolve using the NFCI value for the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above 

-0.62, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (“NFCI”) refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.58?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $38
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.56?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $18
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.54?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.52?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.50?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $480
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October

Volume$8.98K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.62, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (“NFCI”) refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I

KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.60?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.60?

If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.60, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (“NFCI”) refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I

KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.58?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.58?

If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.58, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (“NFCI”) refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I

KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.56?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.56?

If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.56, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (“NFCI”) refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I

KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.54?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.54?

If the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 is above -0.54, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (“NFCI”) refers to the headline NFCI published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October

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Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

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Events (1)

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October

Markets (7)

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.60?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.60?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.58?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.58?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.56?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.56?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.54?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.54?

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Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in October

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.62?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.60?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.60?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.58?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.58?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.56?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.56?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.54?

Will Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index for the week ending October 23, 2026 be above -0.54?

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