Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform3 EventsElections

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Name: Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$139.26K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Vol

$139.26K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $32.69K

Kalshi

markets · $106.56K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 4 cross-platform

Calculate

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $139.26K

23%

77%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Alaska combo: Democratic sweep?"; listed deadline 2027-11-03T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:49:53 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 4 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-11-03T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Alaska Senate and Governor Combo". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(4)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections? Related contracts	70%	—	—
Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections? Related contracts	20%	—	—
Will Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election? Related contracts	8%	—	—
Will Republicans win the Alaska Governor election and Democrats win the Alaska Senate election? Related contracts	5%	—	—

Single-Platform Markets(8)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

70%

Top Probability

$139.26K

Volume

Markets

12.2%

Price Gap

About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Republican candidate in Alaska's Governor election, X candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Governor, and U.S. Senate, using the ultimate winners after ranked-choice tabulation, then the market resolves to Yes. Party affiliation is determined at the time of the general election. Independent means

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Republican candidate in Alaska's Governor election, X candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Governor, and U.S. Senate, using the ultimate winners after ranked-choice tabulation, then the market resolves to Yes. Party affiliation is determined at the time of the general election. Independent means

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. 

A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $139.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $109.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.27)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (4 mkts) vs Kalshi (16 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Alaska combo: Democratic sweep?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $16.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $21.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $18.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 66.5% spread between platforms.

### 2. Alaska combo: Republican sweep?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $21.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.5% spread between platforms.

### 3. Alaska combo: Democrats win House & Senate; Republican wins Governor?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $23.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 5.0% spread between platforms.

### 4. Alaska combo: Democrats win House & Governor; Republican wins Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $12.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 11.5% spread between platforms.

### 5. Alaska combo: Republicans win House & Governor; Democrat wins Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $288
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Alaska combo: Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Alaska combo: Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Alaska combo: Independent wins House; Republicans win Governor & Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $689
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Alaska combo: Independent House, Republican Governor, Democratic Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $310
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Alaska combo: Independent House, Democratic Governor, Republican Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $753
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Alaska combo: Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Alaska combo: Republicans win Governor & Senate; Democrat wins House?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 8 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 4 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Alaska Governor-Senate combo". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Alaska Senate and Governor Combo". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

KALSHIElections

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Volume$30.21K

Markets12

POLYMARKETPolitics

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these ele

Volume$32.69K

Markets4

12 of 12

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KALSHI

Alaska combo: Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.5¢No 46.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Alaska combo: Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House?

If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Govern

Related contracts

Reviewed: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:49:53 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Alaska combo: Democratic sweep?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

KALSHIPolitics

Alaska combo: Democratic sweep?

If ALL of a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Govern

Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

Will Alaska Governor winner be Democratic party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic party?

If ALL of the following occur: Alaska Governor winner: Democratic party, Alaska Senate winner: Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to N

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Alaska combo: Republican sweep?"; listed deadline 2027-11-03T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?"; listed deadline 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:49:53 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Alaska combo: Republican sweep?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

KALSHIPolitics

Alaska combo: Republican sweep?

If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Republican candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Govern

Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

Will Alaska Governor winner be Republican party and Alaska Senate winner be Republican party?

If ALL of the following occur: Alaska Governor winner: Republican party, Alaska Senate winner: Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to N

KALSHI

Alaska combo: Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Alaska combo: Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate?

If ALL of an independent candidate registered as Nonpartisan or Undeclared in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general

KALSHI

Alaska combo: Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Alaska combo: Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor?

If ALL of a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. House at-large election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's Governor election, and a Republican candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election win their respective elections in the November 3, 2026 Alaska general elections for U.S. House at-large, Govern

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Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 04, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

Largest saved gap: 66.5 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

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Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

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Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Events (3)

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Markets (4)

Alaska combo: Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House?

Alaska combo: Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House?

Alaska combo: Democratic sweep?

Alaska combo: Democratic sweep?

Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

Will Alaska Governor winner be Democratic party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic party?

Alaska combo: Republican sweep?

Alaska combo: Republican sweep?

Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

Will Alaska Governor winner be Republican party and Alaska Senate winner be Republican party?

Alaska combo: Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate?

Alaska combo: Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate?

Alaska combo: Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor?

Alaska combo: Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Alaska House, Governor & Senate combo

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Alaska combo: Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House?

Alaska combo: Democrats win Governor & Senate; Republican wins House?

Alaska combo: Democratic sweep?

Alaska combo: Democratic sweep?

Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

Will Alaska Governor winner be Democratic party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic party?

Alaska combo: Republican sweep?

Alaska combo: Republican sweep?

Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

Will Alaska Governor winner be Republican party and Alaska Senate winner be Republican party?

Alaska combo: Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate?

Alaska combo: Independent wins House; Democrats win Governor & Senate?

Alaska combo: Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor?

Alaska combo: Republicans win House & Senate; Democrat wins Governor?

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Event Comparison

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