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How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

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How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

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5 markets tracked

Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	67%
Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	18%
Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%
Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	2%
Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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67%

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About This Event

Before 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between X and Y persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between X and Y persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to above 999 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 100 and 499 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 500 and 999 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to above 999 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.1¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 50 and 99 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.1¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 49 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Wu0jcL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?"></iframe>

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How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

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Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

Markets (5)

Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump pardon between 25 and 49 people before Jan 1, 2027?

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