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$800.68K
1
11

$800.68K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market
Prediction markets currently see a roughly even chance that Bitcoin’s price will be between $66,000 and $68,000 at noon ET on February 22. The collective odds are essentially a coin flip, sitting at 49%. This means traders see it as just as likely that Bitcoin will be outside that specific two-thousand-dollar window as inside it. The market reflects high uncertainty about where the price will land in the very short term.
Two main factors explain this uncertainty. First, Bitcoin’s price has been volatile, recently trading near these levels. It moved above $68,000 in late 2021, fell sharply, and has climbed back toward that area. This old high is a psychological barrier, making price action hard to predict right at that level.
Second, specific recent events are pulling opinions in different directions. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in January brought new institutional money, supporting the price. However, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have created selling pressure. These conflicting forces make a clear short-term direction difficult to call, resulting in a market that sees all outcomes as plausible.
The event itself is the key moment. The market resolves at a precise time: noon ET on February 22, based on a one-minute Binance candle. Until then, any major news could swing sentiment. Traders will watch for large, sudden moves on crypto exchanges and any breaking financial news that affects investor risk appetite. In crypto, shifts can happen quickly without a specific scheduled catalyst.
For short-term price predictions like this, markets are less reliable. They aggregate collective sentiment, which is good at forecasting events with a clear outcome, like an election. A specific price at a specific minute, however, is heavily influenced by random market noise and liquidity. For context, research from groups like MIT has shown prediction markets can be accurate for longer-term trends, but their record on pinpointing exact prices on exact days is mixed. This forecast is best seen as a snapshot of current trader uncertainty, not a sure bet.
Prediction markets on Polymarket show a 49% probability that Bitcoin's price will be between $66,000 and $68,000 at noon ET on February 22. This price, trading at 49¢, indicates the market is almost perfectly split on the outcome. With nearly $150,000 in volume, the market has moderate liquidity, meaning this sentiment is backed by real capital. The near-even odds suggest traders see no strong directional bias for Bitcoin over the next 24 hours, pricing in a high degree of short-term volatility and uncertainty.
Two primary factors are compressing price expectations into this narrow $2,000 corridor. First, Bitcoin has exhibited significant consolidation recently, struggling to break decisively above $68,000 or fall below $66,000. This range-bound behavior reflects a market equilibrium where bullish catalysts, like continued spot ETF inflows, are being offset by bearish pressures such as profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainty. Second, the immediate timeframe creates a noise-dominated environment. A 24-hour window for a highly volatile asset makes technical analysis and news flow disproportionately influential compared to longer-term fundamentals, leading to a cautious, range-focused bet.
The odds will be highly sensitive to any catalyst before the Saturday noon ET resolution. Key inflation data, the PCE Price Index, is scheduled for release the morning of February 22. A significant deviation from expectations could trigger a sharp move that breaks the established range. Additionally, unexpected news regarding Bitcoin ETF approvals in other regions or sudden changes in network transaction fees could inject volatility. The current pricing implies a expectation of quiet, range-bound trading. If pre-market activity on Saturday shows a strong move outside the $66k-$68k band, the market probability will rapidly shift to reflect the new price reality.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
11 markets tracked

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