Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

Total Volume

$214.37K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

Vol

$214.37K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $214.37K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $214.37K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

21 markets tracked

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	90%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	82%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	73%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	61%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	29%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in December 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$214.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In Dec 2026 If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, increases by more than X in the twelve months ending December 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the governme

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Dec 2026

If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, increases by more than X in the twelve months ending December 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the governme

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 5.0% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal gov"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $214.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $15.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $14.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $33.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $39.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 14, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

Volume$214.37K

Markets21

21 of 21

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal gov

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal gov

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.2% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal gov

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.4% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal gov

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal gov

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/WzzT7Z" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)"></iframe>

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Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

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Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

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Events (1)

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

Markets (21)

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

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Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in December 2026?

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