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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-49 House seat? | Poly | 93% |
Will the Republican Party win the CA-49 House seat? | Poly | 7% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for California's 49th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by major media outlets and election authorities after the November 4, 2026, election. California's 49th district is a coastal district in northern San Diego County and southern Orange County, encompassing cities like Oceanside, Carlsbad, and parts of San Clemente. It is considered a competitive swing district that has shifted between Democratic and Republican control in recent cycles, making it a frequent target for national party spending and a bellwether for broader political trends in Southern California. The 2026 race will occur during a midterm election, a historical period where the president's party typically loses congressional seats, adding another layer of strategic importance. Interest in this market stems from its value as a political indicator, a test of partisan strength in a key demographic region, and a focal point for campaign finance and voter mobilization efforts.
California's 49th district has a history of competitive elections since its creation after the 2010 census. Republican Darrell Issa held the seat from 2001 until his retirement in 2018. The 2018 open seat election, held in a strong Democratic national environment, was won by Democrat Mike Levin. Levin defeated Republican Diane Harkey by 7.6 points. He won re-election in 2020 by a narrower 6.2-point margin against Republican Brian Maryott. The 2022 rematch against Maryott saw Levin's margin shrink further to 4.2 points, reflecting the district's swing nature. This trend culminated in the 2024 election, where Republican Matt Gunderson defeated Levin, flipping the seat back to the GOP. This back-and-forth pattern over three election cycles establishes CA-49 as a true swing district, highly responsive to national political tides and the quality of individual candidates. The 2026 election will continue this pattern, testing whether Gunderson can solidify Republican gains or if Democrats can execute a rapid re-flip of the seat.
The outcome of the CA-49 race has implications beyond one House seat. It is a key data point for understanding voter sentiment in a politically mixed, affluent, and educated suburban district, a demographic crucial to winning statewide elections in California and similar states. A Democratic win could signal resilience in suburban areas during a midterm, while a Republican hold would suggest a durable realignment in certain coastal communities. The race also has direct consequences for House control. The Republican majority following the 2024 elections is narrow, so every competitive seat like CA-49 is critical for both parties' strategies to gain or maintain a governing majority. Downstream consequences include the district's influence on policy related to military veterans, coastal environmental regulations, and technology issues, given the local presence of Camp Pendleton and tech companies.
As of early 2025, Republican Matt Gunderson is the incumbent representative. The field of challengers for the 2026 election is not yet formally established. Potential Democratic candidates are likely evaluating a run, but no major declarations have been made. The political environment is shaped by the first year of the new presidential term and the early positioning for the 2026 midterms. Both national party committees are conducting initial assessments of district competitiveness and potential candidate recruitment.
California's 49th district includes the northern San Diego County cities of Oceanside, Carlsbad, Vista, and Encinitas, as well as the southern Orange County city of San Clemente. It also contains Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base.
Republican Matt Gunderson won the 2024 election for CA-49, defeating Democratic incumbent Mike Levin. Gunderson is a former automobile dealership owner and first-time political candidate.
Yes, CA-49 is a classic swing district. It has changed party control twice since 2018, and election margins have been within 7 points in every contest since 2018. It features a nearly even partisan registration with a large block of independent voters.
The general election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. California uses a top-two primary system, where all candidates appear on the same primary ballot and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.
The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate declared the winner of the 2026 CA-49 House election by authoritative resolution sources, typically a consensus of major media outlets like the Associated Press, CNN, and Fox News, or official state certification.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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