Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

Name: Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.66K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

Vol

$14.66K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.66K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.66K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Poly	40%
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Poly	25%
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	Poly	16%
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$14.66K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time.

If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.

Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.

Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time.

If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.

Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $54.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics