Lowest temperature in Newark on Oct 26, 2026?
K 9.7K contracts
1
6
Lowest temperature in Newark on Oct 26, 2026?
K 9.7K contracts
1
6
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 40° or below at 99.5%.
Kalshi
- 40° or below99.5%
- 49° or above0.5%
- 47° to 48°0.5%
- 45° to 46°0.5%
- 43° to 44°0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 9.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 26, 2026 If the minimum temperature recorded at Newark, CLIEWR, for Oct 26, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above. The Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for October 26, 2026, or one week after October 26, 2026.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi event asks about the lowest temperature recorded at Newark, CLIEWR, on October 26, 2026 [1]. Each saved market covers a temperature band. Under the stated rules, a market resolves to Yes if the minimum temperature for that day falls within the band named in its title, using the value reported by The Weather Company rather than other weather services [1]. The rules warn that preliminary Weather Company data may differ from the final figure because of rounding and conversion, and that a "Final" status on weather.com/kalshi is for convenience only [1].
Timing is also specified. The Last Trading Time is 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026, and expiration occurs at the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET after the data release, or one week after October 26, 2026 [1]. The market records list an end date of 2026-11-02 14:00 UTC [1], but the event record states that the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The rules text, not that field, should be treated as the description of expiration.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-25 18:00 UTC, and the record was retrieved at 19:10 UTC the same day [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved Yes prices are: 41-42° at 0.40, below 41° at 0.155, 45-46° at 0.125, 43-44° at 0.065, 47-48° at 0.06, and above 48° at 0.015 [1]. The 41-42° band has the highest Yes price in this snapshot. The evidence does not explain why prices stood at these levels.
The six Yes prices sum to 0.82. All six saved markets are included for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The source also states that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. Because the saved set does not total 1, it is not appropriate to assign the remaining weight to any particular unlisted outcome or to infer its price.
No volume or trader data is supplied, so these prices cannot be read as a measure of liquidity or agreement.
What remains uncertain
Only one platform appears in the evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is made. The band wording, such as "41-42°", "<41°", and ">48°", is not further defined in the supplied excerpt, so whether edge values are included should be confirmed in the full rules. Preliminary data may change, and the rules allow expiration to be held if a material error is corrected [1]. The evidence contains no later snapshot, so these figures describe only the observation time above and should not be read as current prices.
References
- Kalshi: Lowest temperature in Newark on Oct 26, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks what the lowest temperature will be in Newark, New Jersey, on October 26, 2026. Newark is the most populous city in New Jersey and a principal city of the New York metropolitan area [2]. The market is a Kalshi event that resolves on the minimum temperature recorded at Newark, identified in the contract rules by the station code CLIEWR, for October 26, 2026 [1]. The event is split into temperature ranges. Each range is its own Yes or No contract. The six ranges listed in the saved data are below 41 degrees, 41 to 42 degrees, 43 to 44 degrees, 45 to 46 degrees, 47 to 48 degrees, and above 48 degrees [1]. A Yes contract resolves to Yes if the recorded minimum falls in its range. The rules state that if the minimum is in the stated range, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules say that the official value is the minimum temperature as reported by The Weather Company, not any other weather service. The rules note that other forecasts from services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may help a trader's judgment, but they do not determine the outcome [1]. Trading closes at 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026, regardless of when data is released [1]. The contract expires at the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET after the October 26 data is released, or one week after October 26, 2026 [1]. The saved market data for this event shows the following Yes prices: 0.40 for 41 to 42 degrees, 0.155 for below 41 degrees, 0.125 for 45 to 46 degrees, 0.065 for 43 to 44 degrees, 0.06 for 47 to 48 degrees, and 0.015 for above 48 degrees [1]. These figures are price snapshots taken at the observation time shown below. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome. The volume figures are not a measure of liquidity or of how many people traded.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single observable value: the minimum temperature recorded at the Newark station for one calendar day. Because the outcome depends on one reported number, the resolution rules matter as much as the forecast. The rules name the data provider, the station, the date, and the expiration timing [1]. The rules also address data quality. They state that preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value, and they warn traders to use caution with preliminary readings [1]. If the exchange determines there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, expiration may be held until a corrected revision is published or until the expiration date, whichever comes first [1]. If no data is available at the end of that period, all markets resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi [1]. The rules also state that a status of "Final" on the provider's site is provided for convenience and does not guarantee the data is error-free [1]. For readers comparing the temperature ranges, the important point is that each Yes contract depends only on whether the recorded minimum lands in its own range, as defined in the rules [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which source determines the outcome of this contract?
The official and final value is the minimum temperature as reported by The Weather Company, according to the contract rules. Other weather services are mentioned only as possible guides for a trader's decision [1].
What station is used for the temperature?
The rules identify the station as Newark, with the code CLIEWR, for October 26, 2026 [1].
When does trading close?
The rules state that the last trading time is 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026, regardless of any data releases or events occurring on that date [1].
When does the contract expire?
Expiration occurs on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for October 26, 2026, or one week after October 26, 2026 [1].
What happens if the first reported temperature is later corrected?
Preliminary data may differ from the final value because of rounding and conversion differences. If the exchange finds a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, expiration may be held until a non-materially-erroneous revision is published or until the expiration date, whichever comes first [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance of each temperature?
The saved prices are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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