$69.41K
1
24
$69.41K
1
24
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://allin.com/episodes) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of t
Traders on Polymarket are nearly certain that the word "Iran" will be spoken on the next episode of the All-In Podcast. The market price shows a 100% probability, meaning traders see this as a virtual guarantee. With about $69,000 wagered across 24 different word-prediction markets for this episode, there is a dedicated group using real money to bet on the show's content.
The All-In Podcast, hosted by tech investors Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg, regularly discusses current events in technology, business, and geopolitics. Iran is frequently in global headlines due to its regional influence, nuclear program, and tensions with Western nations. Given the hosts' pattern of covering major geopolitical stories, especially those intersecting with economics or technology, mentioning Iran fits their format perfectly. Recent news, such as developments in the Middle East or international negotiations, provides immediate, relevant material for discussion. The market's certainty suggests traders see this topic as unavoidable for a current affairs show released this week.
The next episode is scheduled for release on Friday, February 27. Any major geopolitical news involving Iran before recording—likely on Thursday or early Friday—would solidify this prediction. A sudden, major news event, like a diplomatic breakthrough or a military incident, would make mention even more certain. Conversely, if the hosts decided last minute to do an unusually narrow, technical episode focused solely on a topic like AI startups, there is a tiny chance the word isn't said. But the market is betting heavily against that possibility.
Prediction markets for specific word usage in scheduled media are a new and niche area. Their accuracy isn't as well-studied as markets for elections or sports. However, the logic is straightforward: if a topic is dominant in the news and central to a show's theme, it will probably be discussed. The high trading volume and extreme confidence here suggest informed bettors see a clear, almost obvious link. The main limitation is the unpredictable nature of casual conversation; even likely topics can sometimes be skipped. But in this case, the market is signaling that would be a major surprise.
The prediction market shows near-certainty that the term "Iran" will be mentioned on the next All-In Podcast episode. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share is trading at 100%, effectively pricing the probability at 99% or higher. This indicates traders see the event as virtually guaranteed. The market is thin, with only $69,000 in total volume spread across 24 related term-specific markets, suggesting limited liquidity but high conviction on this specific outcome.
Two concrete factors explain the 100% price. First, the podcast's format and host focus make geopolitical discussion inevitable. The "All-In" hosts, particularly Chamath Palihapitiya and David Sacks, frequently analyze global conflicts and their market impacts. Second, the immediate news cycle is dominated by escalating Middle East tensions, including U.S. airstrikes and proxy conflicts directly involving Iran. The episode will release on February 27, 2024, a point where Iran-related news is a primary topic in business and political media. Historical patterns show the hosts consistently address major geopolitical events within their release cycle.
Given the 100% price, the only scenario that could theoretically shift odds would be an extreme, last-minute change in episode content. This is highly improbable as the show is likely pre-recorded. A technical resolution error, such as the platform incorrectly judging the audio or an unexpected episode delay, poses a greater risk to contract settlement than the actual outcome. Traders should be aware that at 100%, the "Yes" share carries binary risk: it pays $1 only if correct, and loses nearly all value if the term is somehow omitted. The market is essentially betting on a non-event, which in this context is Iran not being mentioned during a full episode recorded amid significant related news.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether specific terms will be mentioned during the next scheduled episode of the All-In Podcast, released on February 27. The All-In Podcast is a weekly show featuring four prominent technology investors and entrepreneurs who discuss current events in business, technology, and politics. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the predetermined term is spoken by any participant during the episode, including within any aired clips from old episodes or prerecorded segments. AI-generated audio or video content also counts toward resolution. This format creates a direct, verifiable prediction based on public media content. The podcast's regular Friday release schedule and its hosts' positions at the intersection of Silicon Valley and finance make its commentary a frequent subject of speculation. Listeners and observers often try to anticipate the hosts' takes on breaking news, company earnings, or regulatory developments. The prediction market formalizes this speculation into a tradable instrument. Recent episodes have covered topics including artificial intelligence regulation, the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and volatility in cryptocurrency markets. The show's influence stems from the hosts' combined net worth, estimated in the tens of billions, and their active investments across public and private companies. Their statements can move markets or signal broader sentiment among elite tech investors.
The All-In Podcast launched in early 2020, initially as an informal discussion among the four friends about the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on markets and society. The show quickly gained a large audience by combining insider perspectives on Silicon Valley with analysis of current events. By late 2020, it consistently ranked among the top 10 technology podcasts on platforms like Apple Podcasts. A significant precedent for prediction markets tracking the podcast was set in 2022, when several markets resolved on whether hosts would discuss specific topics like Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter or the collapse of FTX. The show's format typically includes a segment called 'the sizzle,' where each host presents a positive news story, followed by a 'shower' of negative stories, and concludes with a free-form discussion. This structure creates predictable opportunities for specific terms to be mentioned. The hosts have a track record of addressing major news events within days of their occurrence. For example, their episode following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023 provided immediate commentary that was cited by financial news outlets. Their discussions often precede or coincide with public market movements in stocks they mention, such as Tesla or Coinbase.
The content of the All-In Podcast matters because the hosts control substantial capital and influence investment decisions across global markets. When they express strong opinions on companies, technologies, or policies, those views can affect asset prices and startup funding patterns. Their collective audience of millions includes other investors, entrepreneurs, and policymakers who treat the show as a source of intelligence. For prediction market participants, accurately forecasting the podcast's topics offers a way to monetize understanding of the hosts' interests and the news cycle. A 'Yes' resolution on a term like 'rate cuts' or 'SEC' could indicate the hosts are focusing on Federal Reserve policy or regulatory actions, which might have implications for related financial instruments. More broadly, the topics the hosts choose to highlight reflect what Silicon Valley's power brokers consider important at a given moment, providing a cultural barometer for the tech industry.
The podcast's most recent episode, released on February 23, 2024, included discussions on Nvidia's quarterly earnings, the political situation in Argentina, and a debate about the future of OpenAI. The hosts referenced several companies in their public portfolios, including SpaceX and Reddit. The next episode is scheduled for release on February 27, 2024. Recent news likely to influence discussion includes the SEC's delayed decision on Bitcoin ETF options, new mergers in the AI sector, and ongoing primary elections in the United States. The hosts have been active on social media platform X in the days leading up to the recording, commenting on these events.
New episodes are typically released on Fridays, often appearing on YouTube and podcast platforms in the morning Pacific Time. The exact hour can vary, but the February 27 episode will likely be available by 10 AM PT.
The podcast is not broadcast live. It is prerecorded, usually on a Thursday, and edited for release the following day. There is no live stream or real-time video feed of the recording session.
The show rarely features external guests. The core format relies on conversations between the four main hosts. In its history, guest appearances have been exceptional, numbering fewer than ten across over 200 episodes.
Markets are resolved by reviewing the publicly available video or audio of the episode. Designated resolvers listen for the specific term. The use of timestamps and direct quotes from the episode provides verifiable evidence for the resolution.
Yes, the schedule has occasional gaps, usually around major holidays like Thanksgiving or Christmas. The hosts announced a brief hiatus in August 2023. These breaks are typically communicated via the podcast's social media accounts.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
24 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 97% |
| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 37% |
| Poly | 25% |
| Poly | 25% |
| Poly | 23% |
| Poly | 21% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 15% |
| Poly | 15% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 13% |
| Poly | 12% |
| Poly | 12% |
| Poly | 12% |
| Poly | 11% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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