Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Which party will gain most seats in El Salvador Legislative Election?

Name: Which party will gain most seats in El Salvador Legislative Election?
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which party will gain most seats in El Salvador Legislative Election?

Vol

$5.14K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	78%
Will PCN gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	4%
Will ARENA gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	4%
Will PDC gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	1%
Will Vamos gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	1%
Will FMLN gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	1%
Will Salvadoran Democracy (DS) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	1%
Will FPS gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	1%
Will GANA gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	0%
Will PAIS gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	0%
Will Solidary Force (FS) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

78%

Top Probability

$5.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election, compared to before the election. For the purposes of this market, the number of seats a party held before the election will be the number of seats attributed to that party in the official final results of the Februar

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which party will gain most seats in El Salvador Legislative Election?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (141 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election, compared to before the election.

For the purposes of this market, the number of seats a party held before the election will be the number of seats attributed to that party in the official final results of the Februar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election, compared to befor"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $149.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will ARENA gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $193
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will PCN gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $190
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will PDC gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Vamos gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will FMLN gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will GANA gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $248
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Salvadoran Democracy (DS) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will PAIS gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will FPS gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Solidary Force (FS) gain the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $216
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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