Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How strong will Koguma be?

Name: How strong will Koguma be?
End: 2026-10-21T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$21.98K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How strong will Koguma be?

Vol

$21.98K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $21.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Koguma peak as a Very strong typhoon?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Koguma peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Poly	97%
Will Koguma peak as a Violent typhoon?	Poly	3%
Will Koguma peak as a Strong typhoon?	Poly	0%
Will Koguma peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$21.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Koguma. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Koguma in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Koguma an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How strong will Koguma be?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 21, 2026 (10 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Koguma. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Koguma in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Koguma an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Koguma. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Koguma in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Koguma a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.73)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Koguma peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $490
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Koguma peak as a Strong typhoon?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Koguma peak as a Very strong typhoon?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Koguma peak as a Violent typhoon?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate