GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

Name: Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
End: 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$260.64K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

Vol

$260.64K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $260.64K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $260.64K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?	Poly	28%
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Poly	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$260.64K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 1, 2027 (208 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $260.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $18.9K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 13.81)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $259.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $848
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics