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This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearin
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on the operational reliability of OpenAI's ChatGPT service. It specifically tracks whether ChatGPT will experience a service disruption classified as a 'Partial' or 'Full Outage' by a specified date, according to OpenAI's official status page. The resolution depends solely on incidents where ChatGPT is explicitly listed as an 'Affected component.' Issues with other OpenAI products like the API or Sora, unless they also impact ChatGPT directly, do not count toward a 'Yes' resolution. This creates a precise, binary bet on the stability of one of the world's most widely used AI applications. Interest in this market stems from ChatGPT's central role in daily workflows for millions of users, from students to professionals. Service outages can cause significant disruption, making reliability a key metric for assessing the platform's maturity and infrastructure strength. The market also reflects broader concerns about the dependence on cloud-based AI services and the economic impact of their downtime. Recent patterns of intermittent outages have drawn attention to the scaling challenges faced by OpenAI as user demand continues to grow.
ChatGPT launched to the public on November 30, 2022, and experienced its first significant, widely reported outages within its first few months of operation. A major outage occurred on February 27, 2023, which OpenAI attributed to a 'configuration change' that exposed a bug in its Redis client library, affecting all ChatGPT users and the API. This incident highlighted the platform's early-stage scaling challenges. Another significant disruption happened on March 20, 2023, which OpenAI classified as a 'major outage' affecting all services. The company's status history shows a pattern of incidents, often labeled as 'partial outages,' related to backend database errors, elevated error rates, and issues with cloud provider services. These historical outages established a precedent that even a highly advanced AI service is susceptible to conventional IT infrastructure failures. The frequency and causes of past outages provide a baseline for assessing whether OpenAI's reliability is improving as the service matures and its user base expands into the hundreds of millions.
ChatGPT outages have tangible economic consequences. For the millions of individuals and businesses that integrate ChatGPT into daily operations, downtime translates directly to lost productivity, disrupted workflows, and potential financial loss for freelancers and firms relying on the API. Prolonged or frequent outages could erode trust in OpenAI as a stable enterprise partner, pushing companies to consider alternative AI providers or develop in-house solutions. On a societal level, these disruptions reveal the fragility of the new digital infrastructure built around generative AI. As education, research, and creative work become increasingly dependent on tools like ChatGPT, their reliability becomes a matter of public interest. Outages expose the risks of centralizing a critical utility within a single corporate platform, prompting discussions about the need for redundancy, open-source alternatives, and regulatory oversight for essential AI services.
As of mid-2024, ChatGPT's service reliability remains a live issue. The OpenAI status page continues to report periodic incidents, though their public communications suggest ongoing investments in more robust infrastructure. The company has not released official metrics like uptime percentage or mean time between failures for ChatGPT. The most recent observable trend involves shorter, more frequent 'partial outage' events affecting specific features or regions, as opposed to the global full outages seen in 2023. This may indicate improvements in system architecture that contain failures, but it confirms that the service is not yet free from operational incidents.
Past outages have been caused by software bugs introduced during updates, database failures, problems with cloud infrastructure providers, and unexpected surges in user traffic. Most root causes are related to the complexity of scaling a real-time AI application to hundreds of millions of users.
Duration varies widely. Minor partial outages may be resolved in under an hour, while major full-service disruptions have lasted several hours. The February 2023 outage, for example, lasted approximately five hours before full service was restored.
OpenAI maintains a public status page at status.openai.com. This page provides real-time service health information, incident reports, and historical data. It is the definitive source for determining if an active outage is occurring.
During a widespread system outage, all access methods typically fail. However, during periods of high load or partial degradation, OpenAI has sometimes prioritized paying Plus subscribers over free users, granting them more reliable access through separate server capacity.
Available data suggests the nature of outages has evolved. The company appears to experience fewer prolonged, global full outages but continues to report regional or partial service degradations. This indicates progress in system resilience, though achieving perfect uptime for a service of this scale remains a significant challenge.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 27% |
| Poly | 19% |
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