Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

Total Volume

$33.05K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

Vol

$33.05K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $33.05K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.05K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Proposition 141 pass?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Proposition 141 pass?	Kalshi	93%
Will Proposition 319 pass?	Kalshi	90%
Will Proposition 316 pass?	Kalshi	90%
Will Proposition 142 pass?	Kalshi	81%
Will Proposition 144 pass?	Kalshi	70%
Will Proposition 317 pass?	Kalshi	67%
Will Proposition 318 pass?	Kalshi	65%
Will Proposition 320 pass?	Kalshi	43%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$33.05K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Arizona If Proposition X passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Arizona

If Proposition X passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Proposition 320 passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $33.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Proposition 320 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Proposition 319 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Proposition 318 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Proposition 317 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Proposition 316 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Proposition 144 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Proposition 142 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $277
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Proposition 141 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $6.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

Volume$33.05K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will Proposition 141 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 141 pass?

If Proposition 141 passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Proposition 319 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 319 pass?

If Proposition 319 passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Proposition 316 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 316 pass?

If Proposition 316 passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Proposition 142 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.0¢No 19.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 142 pass?

If Proposition 142 passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Proposition 144 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Proposition 144 pass?

If Proposition 144 passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

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Will Proposition 141 pass?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

Markets (8)

Will Proposition 141 pass?

Will Proposition 141 pass?

Will Proposition 319 pass?

Will Proposition 319 pass?

Will Proposition 316 pass?

Will Proposition 316 pass?

Will Proposition 142 pass?

Will Proposition 142 pass?

Will Proposition 144 pass?

Will Proposition 144 pass?

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Will Proposition 141 pass?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

Will Proposition 141 pass?

Will Proposition 141 pass?

Will Proposition 319 pass?

Will Proposition 319 pass?

Will Proposition 316 pass?

Will Proposition 316 pass?

Will Proposition 142 pass?

Will Proposition 142 pass?

Will Proposition 144 pass?

Will Proposition 144 pass?

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