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Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

Name: Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
End: 2026-05-23T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$510.08

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Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

Vol

$510.08

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $510.08

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $510.08

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

21 markets tracked

Will "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	51%
Will "DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	46%
Will "PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	44%
Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	44%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	33%
Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	32%
Will "THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	28%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	27%
Will "ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	25%
Will "SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	24%
Will "THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	23%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	22%
Will "A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	20%
Will "NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	19%
Will "AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	19%
Will "NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	17%
Will "EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	17%
Will "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	12%
Will "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	11%
Will "GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	11%
Will "THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$510.08

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 23, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.


**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by Ju"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $510
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.20)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will "PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $23
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will "DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $17
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will "THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will "SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $282
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will "NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will "NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will "THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will "EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will "AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will "A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $163
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will "ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will "GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will "THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture