MD-07 House Election Winner
PM $24.5K
1
2
MD-07 House Election Winner
PM $24.5K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Kweisi Mfume (D) at 96.5%.
Polymarket
- Kweisi Mfume (D)96.5%
- Scott Collier (R)2.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $24.5K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event tracks which party wins the MD-07 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, which the source says will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The rules say the market resolves to the party of the winning candidate, based on that candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when the House elections are conclusively called [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1]. Resolution rests on "a consensus of credible reporting," and if that is ambiguous, on official results from the Federal Election Commission [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to when the race is called, this listed time is a close time in the provider data, not a guaranteed date of resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:18:42.118Z [1]. These are prices from that observation, not live or executable quotes, and they do not verify any probability.
The two markets are not the same contract. The Democratic Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.9635 and a No price of 0.0365 [1]. The Republican Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.0295 and a No price of 0.9705 [1]. The Democratic Yes price is far above the Republican Yes price in this snapshot, but the two Yes prices should be read as separate quotes on separate questions. Their sum is not a meaningful measure of anything here, and the snapshot does not explain why the prices stand where they do.
Volume is not included in the excerpt used here, so this summary says nothing about liquidity or how many traders hold each position.
What remains uncertain
The coverage covers two of two saved markets for this provider event, and the sample is not partial [1]. The provider's sample note, however, states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any other candidate or party outcome outside these two markets is not described by this evidence.
The evidence also does not show the election result, any post-snapshot price changes, or any news about the race. Reporting on the outcome would be required to resolve the question, and the rules specify the resolution method rather than any result [1].
References
- Polymarket: MD-07 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market asks which party will win the U.S. House seat for Maryland's 7th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The contract is part of an event titled "MD-07 House Election Winner," and its rules say it will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat [1]. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. The rules define a candidate's party as their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus, measured at the same point [1]. The timing of the party determination is therefore tied to when results are conclusively called, not to a fixed calendar date. The rules also explain how the outcome is established. The market resolves based on the result indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The event lists two binary contracts: one on whether the Democratic Party wins the seat and one on whether the Republican Party wins it [1]. Because the seat has two named major-party outcomes in these contracts, the two prices in a snapshot are separate statements about each contract and should be read as such.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: the party affiliation of the winner of the MD-07 House seat in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections [1]. Its rules set out how that affiliation is determined, including the treatment of candidates without a major-party ballot listing, and which sources decide the result when reporting is contested or unclear [1]. Readers should separate the contract's rules from the timing of any real-world result. The rules specify when party status is measured and what evidence resolves the market, and a price snapshot reflects only the moment it was recorded. For context on how close outcomes are documented in general, a Wikipedia list covers results decided by a margin of less than 0.1% in races with at least 1,000 votes cast [2]. That list describes a category of close races and does not indicate the margin in this district.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election that this contract depends on?
The 2026 midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1].
Which party does the contract count a candidate as belonging to?
A candidate is counted by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called [1]. A candidate with no ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time [1].
What happens if the result is unclear?
If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely on the official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. Otherwise, resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting [1].
Does the listed end time show when the result will be known?
The event lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules tie resolution to when the House elections are conclusively called, so the listed end time should not be read as a guaranteed date for the result [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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