Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

Name: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$124.65K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $124.65K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $124.65K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$124.65K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date wi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $124.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $17.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $124.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Next Market Closes

74d 15h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/XcRuPi" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)