Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?

Total Volume

$3.53K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?

Vol

$3.53K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.53K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.53K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?	Kalshi	24%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

24%

Top Probability

$3.53K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Immediately following OpenAI's IPO If Sam Altman holds shares of OpenAI carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following OpenAI's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules. Ownership and votes per share are measured at the initial closing of OpenAI's IPO. Payout Criteria Sam Altman holds shares with more votes per share than those sold to the public. Benefi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?
**Category:** Companies | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Immediately following OpenAI's IPO

If Sam Altman holds shares of OpenAI carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following OpenAI's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved

SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules.
Ownership and votes per share are measured at the initial closing of OpenAI's IPO.

Payout Criteria

Sam Altman holds shares with more votes per share than those sold to the public. Benefi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sam Altman holds shares of OpenAI carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following OpenAI's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved

SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules.
Ownersh"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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