Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?

Total Volume

$5.49K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?

Vol

$5.49K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.49K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.49K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?	Kalshi	59%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$5.49K

Volume

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About This Event

Immediately following Anthropic's IPO If Dario Amodei holds shares of Anthropic carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following Anthropic's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules. Ownership and votes per share are measured at the initial closing of Anthropic's IPO. Payout Criteria Dario Amodei holds shares with more votes per share than those sold to th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?
**Category:** Companies | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Immediately following Anthropic's IPO

If Dario Amodei holds shares of Anthropic carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following Anthropic's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved

SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules.
Ownership and votes per share are measured at the initial closing of Anthropic's IPO.

Payout Criteria

Dario Amodei holds shares with more votes per share than those sold to th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Dario Amodei holds shares of Anthropic carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following Anthropic's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved

SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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