This prediction market topic concerns the probability of a hurricane making landfall in the conterminous United States during the early part of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, specifically between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. The market resolves based on official advisories from the National Hurricane Center, which defines a hurricane as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher. Landfall is determined when the center of the hurricane's eye crosses the coastline. This timeframe is notable because it encompasses the very beginning of the official Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, and includes the historically rare but possible occurrence of pre-season or very early-season storms. Interest in this market stems from its intersection of climatology, risk assessment, and economic forecasting. Early-season hurricane landfalls, while statistically less common, can be particularly disruptive as they often catch coastal communities and emergency managers during preparedness phases. The market allows participants to weigh complex factors including evolving seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, current oceanic and atmospheric conditions like sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region, and potential climate patterns such as the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can suppress or enhance Atlantic hurricane activity. This topic garners attention from insurance companies, commodity traders, emergency management officials, and the general public in coastal regions, all of whom have a vested interest in the timing and severity of hurricane threats.

Historical Context

Historically, hurricane landfalls in the conterminous United States before June 1 are rare but not unprecedented. The official Atlantic hurricane season was established as June 1 to November 30 to encapsulate the vast majority of tropical activity, yet storms can and do form outside these dates. A notable early landfall occurred with Tropical Storm Alberto, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on May 31, 2018, just hours before the official season start. More significantly, Hurricane Alma in 1970 made landfall in Florida on May 29 as a Category 1 hurricane. The earliest U.S. hurricane landfall on record in the satellite era (since 1966) was Hurricane Audrey in 1957, which struck Texas and Louisiana as a Category 4 storm on June 27. The period covered by this market, December through May, is climatologically the quietest, with December through April accounting for less than 1% of all Atlantic named storm activity. However, the month of May has seen increasing activity in recent decades, a trend some scientists link to warming ocean temperatures. For instance, in 2021, Tropical Storm Ana formed in the Atlantic on May 22, though it did not threaten land. This historical precedent underscores that while the probability is low, the event is within the realm of meteorological possibility, making it a valid subject for probabilistic forecasting through prediction markets.

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