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US gas prices on Election Day | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US gas prices on Election Day

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US gas prices on Election Day

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Kalshi

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11 markets tracked

Will average gas prices be above $2.50?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will average gas prices be above $2.50?	Kalshi	96%
Will average gas prices be above $3.00?	Kalshi	87%
Will average gas prices be above $2.75?	Kalshi	84%
Will average gas prices be above $3.50?	Kalshi	72%
Will average gas prices be above $3.75?	Kalshi	71%
Will average gas prices be above $3.25?	Kalshi	71%
Will average gas prices be above $4.00?	Kalshi	54%
Will average gas prices be above $4.25?	Kalshi	40%
Will average gas prices be above $4.75?	Kalshi	29%
Will average gas prices be above $4.50?	Kalshi	27%
Will average gas prices be above $5.00?	Kalshi	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

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$0.00

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About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than X on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US gas prices on Election Day
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than X on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $5.00 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.75?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.25?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will average **gas prices** be above $3.75?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will average **gas prices** be above $3.50?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will average **gas prices** be above $2.75?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

59¢

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US gas prices on Election Day

US gas prices on Election Day

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will average **gas prices** be above $2.50?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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