Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026

Total Volume

$45.77

Events

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US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026

Vol

$45.77

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $45.77

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $45.77

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?	Kalshi	87%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 419 million barrels?	Kalshi	82%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?	Kalshi	79%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?	Kalshi	74%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?	Kalshi	68%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 423 million barrels?	Kalshi	62%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 424 million barrels?	Kalshi	56%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 425 million barrels?	Kalshi	43%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 426 million barrels?	Kalshi	42%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 427 million barrels?	Kalshi	37%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 428 million barrels?	Kalshi	31%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 429 million barrels?	Kalshi	25%
Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 430 million barrels?	Kalshi	20%

AI Analysis

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87%

Top Probability

$45.77

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

the week ending Oct 9, 2026 If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above X million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil, Excl. Lease Stock, inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA, for the week ending Oct 9, 2026. This measure excludes crude oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, SPR. EIA reports the statistic in thousand barrels. Values stated in million

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** the week ending Oct 9, 2026

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above X million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil, Excl. Lease Stock, inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA, for the week ending Oct 9, 2026. This measure excludes crude oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, SPR. EIA reports the statistic in thousand barrels. Values stated in million

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above 

430 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administrat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $46
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 430 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 429 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 428 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 427 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 426 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 425 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 424 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 423 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 419 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026

Volume$45.77

Markets13

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KALSHI

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.0¢No 13.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above 418 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administrat

KALSHI

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 419 million barrels?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 419 million barrels?

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above 419 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administrat

KALSHI

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.0¢No 21.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above 420 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administrat

KALSHI

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.0¢No 26.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above 421 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administrat

KALSHI

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?

If U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 are strictly above 422 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the U.S. Commercial Crude Oil (Excl. Lease Stock) inventory level reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administrat

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/XjG6oU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026"></iframe>

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US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026

US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026

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Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

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Events (1)

US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026

Markets (13)

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 419 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 419 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?

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Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9, 2026

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 418 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 419 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 419 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 420 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 421 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?

Will U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct 9, 2026 be above 422 million barrels?

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