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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Iowa Governor Republican Primary Winner

Name: Iowa Governor Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.49K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Iowa Governor Republican Primary Winner

Vol

$18.49K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.49K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.49K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	78%
Will Adam Steen win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	12%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	7%
Will Brad Sherman win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	1%
Will Eddie Andrews win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

78%

Top Probability

$18.49K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iowa Governor Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $29.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.63)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $6.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Brad Sherman win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eddie Andrews win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Adam Steen win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics