
$48.55K
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1 market tracked

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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 62% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of cred
Prediction markets currently estimate a 62% probability that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will issue a Level 3 "Reconsider Nonessential Travel" warning for a disease by the end of 2026. In simple terms, traders collectively believe there is roughly a 3 in 5 chance this will happen. This shows a slight leaning toward "yes," but with significant uncertainty remaining.
A CDC Level 3 notice is its highest routine travel health warning, advising travelers to avoid nonessential trips to affected countries due to a severe health risk. It is a significant official action that signals a serious outbreak of an infectious disease like COVID-19, mpox, or a novel pathogen.
The current odds reflect a few key considerations. First, the multi-year timeframe through 2026 provides a long window for a new outbreak or resurgence of an existing disease to occur. Historical patterns show that major infectious disease events prompting such warnings, while not annual, are not exceptionally rare over a three-year period.
Second, the CDC has shown a willingness to use this tool for regional outbreaks beyond global pandemics. For example, it issued a Level 3 notice for mpox in 2022 and has used it for regional dengue fever outbreaks. The market may be pricing in the likelihood of a similar localized but severe event.
Finally, the probability isn't higher because issuing a Level 3 warning is a major step. The CDC typically reserves it for situations posing a direct, high-consequence risk to travelers. The absence of an immediate, obvious threat today keeps the forecast from being a near-certainty.
There is no single date to watch, as the decision would be driven by unfolding disease trends. Key signals would be official reports from the World Health Organization declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, or surveillance data showing a dangerous disease spreading in popular travel destinations.
Seasonal patterns also matter. Summer travel seasons and winter respiratory virus seasons often see increased disease spread and surveillance. Any emergence of a novel pathogen with high transmissibility or severity would be the most direct trigger.
Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent track record on yes/no event forecasting, often outperforming pundits. For specific regulatory or agency actions like this, they can be useful for aggregating expert views on bureaucratic behavior and risk assessment.
A major limitation is the long timeframe. Predictions this far out are inherently less reliable, as they are more speculative. The odds will likely shift considerably if and when concrete news about an outbreak emerges. This forecast is best seen as a snapshot of current collective judgment on a future possibility, not a firm prophecy.
The Polymarket contract "CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?" is trading at 62 cents, implying a 62% probability. This price signals the market sees a Level 3 travel health notice as more likely than not before the end of 2026, but with significant uncertainty. With only $49,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin, meaning this price could be volatile if new information emerges.
The 62% probability reflects a baseline expectation of recurring public health threats within a three-year window. The CDC has historically issued Level 3 warnings for events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak, and regional dengue fever surges. The market is pricing in the near-certainty that another infectious disease event of sufficient scale will occur by late 2026. This is not a prediction of a specific pathogen, but a bet on statistical likelihood given recent history of roughly one major event every 2-3 years. The long timeframe until resolution allows for the accumulation of multiple seasonal outbreaks or an unexpected novel threat.
The primary downward pressure on the "Yes" probability would be an extended period of global epidemiological calm with no major outbreaks crossing the CDC's threshold for a top-tier warning. A significant advancement in global disease surveillance or vaccine platforms that dampens outbreak severity could also lower odds over time. Conversely, specific catalysts that would drive the price higher include confirmed human-to-human spread of a virulent avian influenza strain, a severe respiratory virus season this fall, or a major outbreak of a disease like cholera or mpox in a region with high travel volume. Monitoring the CDC's Level 2 advisories, which are more common, can provide early signals; an escalation of any existing Level 2 notice would directly increase this market's probability.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$48.55K
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This prediction market focuses on whether the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026. A Level 3 notice is the CDC's highest travel advisory, recommending travelers 'Reconsider Nonessential Travel' to affected destinations. The market resolves based on the official CDC Travel Health Notices page, where such warnings are publicly posted. The outcome depends on the emergence of a disease outbreak or health threat severe enough to trigger this specific federal response within the defined timeframe. The CDC's Travel Health Notice system is a key tool for informing the public and medical professionals about international health risks. It operates on a four-level scale: Level 1 (Practice Usual Precautions), Level 2 (Practice Enhanced Precautions), Level 3 (Reconsider Nonessential Travel), and Level 4 (Do Not Travel). A Level 3 notice indicates a significant, widespread, and ongoing health threat at a destination that poses a high risk to travelers. The interest in this market stems from its function as a proxy for anticipating major global health events. Participants are essentially betting on the probability of a serious infectious disease outbreak occurring somewhere in the world that meets the CDC's threshold for its most severe non-mandatory warning within the next few years. This intersects with ongoing concerns about pandemic preparedness, climate change's influence on disease spread, and geopolitical stability affecting public health infrastructure. The market timeframe, ending in late 2026, allows observation of seasonal disease patterns, potential novel pathogen emergence, and the evolution of existing endemic threats.
The CDC's Travel Health Notice system has evolved over decades, but its use for major outbreaks became prominent in the 21st century. During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the CDC issued travel notices for numerous countries, though widespread Level 3 advisories were less common. The 2014-2016 Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa marked a significant precedent. The CDC issued a Level 3 warning for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in July 2014, maintaining it for over two years in some cases. This was a clear example of a viral hemorrhagic fever triggering the highest precautionary health advisory. The COVID-19 pandemic saw an unprecedented use of the system. In January and February 2020, the CDC issued a series of Level 3 warnings for China, followed by South Korea, Iran, Italy, and most of Europe as the virus spread globally. By March 2020, the CDC had issued a global Level 3 Travel Health Notice for COVID-19, recommending avoidance of all nonessential international travel. This global notice remained in place until April 2022. More recently, in 2022 and 2023, the CDC issued Level 3 notices for mpox (formerly monkeypox) for specific destinations and for cholera in Lebanon and Syria. These instances demonstrate that the threshold for a Level 3 notice can be met by both widespread pandemics and more localized, severe outbreaks of endemic diseases.
The issuance of a CDC Level 3 travel warning has immediate economic and social consequences. Airlines, cruise lines, and the tourism industry closely monitor these advisories, as they directly impact travel insurance, booking cancellations, and consumer behavior. A Level 3 notice for a major tourist destination can cost the local economy millions in lost revenue. For multinational corporations, these notices trigger revised travel policies for employees, potentially disrupting business operations and supply chain logistics. Politically, a CDC warning can strain diplomatic relations, as it represents a formal U.S. government assessment that a country is unsafe for travelers due to health risks. This public designation can affect a nation's international standing and its own public health messaging. For global health, the notice serves as a formal alert to the international community about a deteriorating disease situation, potentially mobilizing resources and attention. The decision to issue or not issue a warning involves balancing public health protection with economic and diplomatic considerations, making it a consequential act of health governance.
As of late 2024, the CDC's Travel Health Notice page shows no active Level 3 warnings. The most recent high-level notices were for cholera in Lebanon and Syria, which were downgraded to Level 2 in 2024. The global public health landscape is monitoring several ongoing threats. These include persistent avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreaks in poultry and sporadic infections in mammals and humans, mpox cases in certain regions, and cholera outbreaks in conflict zones like Gaza and Sudan. The CDC maintains Level 2 warnings for several destinations regarding diseases like dengue fever. The agency continues to emphasize pre-travel consultation with health providers and routine vaccination as primary precautions. The absence of a Level 3 notice in late 2024 reflects a period without a single disease outbreak meeting the specific criteria of being widespread, severe, and posing a high risk to travelers in a way that necessitates a 'reconsider travel' recommendation.
The CDC issues Travel Health Notices based solely on health risks from infectious diseases or other medical threats. The U.S. Department of State issues Travel Advisories based on safety and security risks, such as crime, terrorism, or civil unrest. A country can have a high-level warning from one agency but not the other.
Yes. The CDC has issued Level 3 notices for dengue fever outbreaks, such as for Sri Lanka in 2017. For malaria, notices are typically Level 2, but a Level 3 could be issued for a severe outbreak in an area with drug-resistant strains or where prophylaxis is ineffective.
The timeline varies. For COVID-19, the CDC issued a Level 3 for China about three weeks after the WHO announced the outbreak. For fast-moving outbreaks, the response can be within days. The delay depends on data verification, assessment of risk to travelers, and internal review processes.
The CDC typically issues notices for entire countries. However, the notice text often specifies if the risk is confined to certain regions or cities within that country. The advisory applies to travel to the entire nation, but the risk description provides geographic detail.
The CDC advises travelers in a country under a Level 3 notice to follow enhanced precautions, avoid high-risk areas, monitor their health, and review their travel health insurance coverage. It does not typically recommend immediate evacuation solely based on a health notice, but travelers should reconsider any planned nonessential activities.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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