NY-04 Republican nominee? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

NY-04 Republican nominee?

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NY-04 Republican nominee?

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Kalshi

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7 markets tracked

Will Brian Miller be the Republican nominee for NY-4?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Brian Miller be the Republican nominee for NY-4?	Kalshi	12%
Will Dennis McGrath be the Republican nominee for NY-4?	Kalshi	8%
Will Marvin Suber Williams be the Republican nominee for NY-4?	Kalshi	7%
Will Martin Smithmyer be the Republican nominee for NY-4?	Kalshi	7%
Will Don Clavin be the Republican nominee for NY-4?	Kalshi	2%
Will Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick be the Republican nominee for NY-4?	Kalshi	2%
Will Anthony D’Esposito be the Republican nominee for NY-4?	Kalshi	0%

AI Analysis

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12%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NY-4 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, April 19, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NY-04 Republican nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NY-4 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Marvin Suber Williams wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NY-4 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Marvin Suber Williams wins the party's nomination."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marvin Suber Williams be the Republican nominee for NY-4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Martin Smithmyer be the Republican nominee for NY-4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Brian Miller be the Republican nominee for NY-4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Dennis McGrath be the Republican nominee for NY-4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick be the Republican nominee for NY-4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Don Clavin be the Republican nominee for NY-4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Anthony D’Esposito be the Republican nominee for NY-4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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5¢

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NY-04 Republican nominee?

NY-04 Republican nominee?

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Will Brian Miller be the Republican nominee for NY-4?

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About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Brian Miller be the Republican nominee for NY-4?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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