Name: Fed decision in March?
End: 2026-03-18T00:00:00.000Z

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Fed decision in March? | PredictPedia

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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Poly	71%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Poly	27%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Poly	2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Poly	1%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed decision in March?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 18, 2026 (62 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed optio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.75M
* **Total Liquidity:** $411.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $495.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $440.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $344.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $468.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

61d 17h remaining

Mar 18, 2026 12:00 AM

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25¢

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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

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Events (1)

Fed decision in March?

Markets (4)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed decision in March?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

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