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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner

Name: Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.73K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner

Vol

$12.73K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.73K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.73K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	45%
Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	35%
Will Harry Arora win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	30%
Will Betsy McCaughey win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	9%
Will Timothy Wilcox win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$12.73K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party;

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 11, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $32.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.40)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Timothy Wilcox win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Betsy McCaughey win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $389
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Harry Arora win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 11, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics