
$108.87K
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$108.87K
2
15
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IL-9 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets currently give Daniel Biss, a former Illinois state senator, roughly a 2 in 3 chance of becoming the Democratic nominee for Illinois' 9th Congressional District in 2026. This means traders collectively see him as the clear favorite, but not a guaranteed winner. The contest is for the party's candidate to run in the general election for this reliably Democratic Chicago-area seat, which covers parts of the North Side and northern suburbs. The current representative, Jan Schakowsky, has held the seat since 1999 but is not seeking re-election, creating this open race.
Traders are betting on Biss for a few specific reasons. First, he has significant local political experience and name recognition. He served as a state representative and senator for the area, and was the Democratic nominee for Illinois Comptroller in 2010. He also ran a competitive statewide primary for governor in 2018, finishing second. This established political base is a major advantage in a local party nomination process.
Second, Biss has already declared his candidacy and is actively campaigning. This early start allows him to lock in support from local Democratic organizations and donors before potential rivals fully organize. In a district where the Democratic primary winner is almost certain to win the general election, securing the party's nomination is the real contest.
Finally, while other candidates may emerge, no opponent with comparable stature and resources has yet entered the race. The market reflects a belief that Biss's head start and political network will be difficult for another candidate to overcome.
The primary election is scheduled for March 17, 2026. However, the decisive events will happen much sooner. The most important period is the candidate filing deadline, which is likely in late November 2025. If a well-known challenger files paperwork by then, the prediction could shift significantly.
Before that, watch for endorsements from key local groups like the Cook County Democratic Party or major unions. An endorsement for Biss from a group like this would likely solidify his position as the frontrunner. Conversely, a notable endorsement for a different candidate would be a strong signal that the race is competitive. Fundraising reports, which are public, will also provide clues about the strength of each campaign.
Prediction markets have a solid track record in forecasting primary election outcomes, especially when one candidate has a clear advantage in experience and organization, as Biss appears to have here. They often perform better than early polls because they force people to back their beliefs with money.
The main limitation is time. This market is forecasting an event over two years away, which is a very long horizon in politics. Unexpected candidates could enter, local political dynamics might change, or a national issue could reshape the race. The current odds are a snapshot of today's information, not a final verdict. As the filing deadline and primary day get closer, the market predictions typically become more accurate.
Prediction markets currently price former Illinois state senator Daniel Biss as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Democratic nomination in Illinois' 9th congressional district. Across platforms, his implied probability is 66%. This price indicates the market sees his nomination as the most likely outcome, but significant uncertainty remains about a primary still two years away. The aggregate volume of $109,000 shows serious trader engagement. The market resolves on March 17, 2026, when the Illinois primary is held.
Biss's high price reflects his established political profile in the district and the absence of a declared, high-profile challenger. He was the Democratic nominee for Illinois governor in 2018 and previously served in the state legislature representing areas within the 9th District. This gives him superior name recognition and a donor network compared to potential rivals. The current representative, Jan Schakowsky, has held the seat since 1999 and is a progressive institution. Markets likely assume that if she retires, which is plausible ahead of the 2026 election, the party establishment would coalesce around a known quantity like Biss to avoid a divisive primary.
The 66% price is vulnerable to two main catalysts. First, an official announcement from Rep. Schakowsky on whether she will seek re-election will dramatically shift the landscape. If she runs again, the Biss market would collapse to near zero. If she retires, other local politicians may enter the race, diluting Biss's support. Second, the formal entry of a credible challenger with a distinct base, such as a Chicago alderman or a state representative with strong local ties, would pressure Biss's odds downward. The long time horizon until the primary means these odds will be highly sensitive to candidate announcements over the next 18 months.
A notable 15.4% spread exists between platforms, with Polymarket pricing Biss higher than Kalshi. This arbitrage opportunity suggests differing trader demographics or liquidity constraints. Polymarket's global, crypto-native user base may be placing more weight on Biss's name ID alone. Kalshi's US-regulated platform might attract traders with more nuanced, local knowledge of Illinois politics who are pricing in a higher chance of Schakowsky running again or a competitive challenger emerging. The spread will likely narrow as the resolution date approaches and more definitive political news emerges.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the Democratic Party nomination for Illinois's 9th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a specified candidate, referred to as 'X' in the market description, wins the Democratic nomination for that seat. The 9th district is a heavily Democratic area covering parts of Chicago's North Side, including neighborhoods like Lakeview, Uptown, and Rogers Park, along with suburbs such as Evanston and Skokie. The seat has been held by Democrats for decades, making the primary election the de facto contest for the congressional seat. The current representative is Jan Schakowsky, who has held the position since 1999. Interest in this market stems from speculation about potential political succession, as Schakowsky will be 82 years old in 2026, leading to questions about whether she will seek re-election or if an open seat contest will emerge. The Democratic primary in this district typically attracts significant attention from local activists, progressive organizations, and political observers, as it often features competitive races that reflect broader ideological debates within the party. The outcome could signal shifts in Chicago's political landscape and influence the direction of Illinois's Democratic delegation in Congress.
Illinois's 9th congressional district has existed in various forms since 1903, but its current configuration dates largely from the 1990s. The district was represented by Democrat Sidney Yates for 48 years, from 1949 to 1999, establishing its long tradition of liberal representation. Yates was known for his advocacy of arts funding and support for Israel. When Yates retired, Jan Schakowsky won a competitive 1998 Democratic primary against then-State Senator Howard Carroll and others, securing the seat with 75% of the vote in the general election. Schakowsky has faced only nominal Republican opposition since then, but her Democratic primaries have sometimes been contested. In 2014, she defeated primary challenger Simon Ribeiro with 82% of the vote. The district's boundaries were last significantly redrawn in 2021 following the 2020 census, though changes were minor as Illinois lost one congressional seat overall. The 9th district maintained its Democratic stronghold status, with Joe Biden receiving 78% of the vote there in the 2020 presidential election. The potential for an open seat in 2026 recalls the 1998 transition and raises questions about whether a new generation of progressive leadership will emerge from Chicago's North Side and suburban base.
The Democratic nomination in Illinois's 9th district matters because it represents one of the safest Democratic seats in Congress. Whoever wins the primary will almost certainly become the next representative, giving them influence over federal policy and a platform in national politics. The district includes economically diverse areas, from affluent lakefront neighborhoods to working-class communities, requiring representation that addresses both urban and suburban concerns. The outcome will affect federal funding for local projects like transportation infrastructure along the Red Line, environmental protection for Lake Michigan, and support for institutions like Northwestern University. For the Democratic Party, the race could highlight tensions between progressive activists and more moderate establishment figures. A victory by a candidate backed by groups like the Democratic Socialists of America would signal continued leftward movement in safe Democratic districts. Conversely, a win by a more centrist candidate might indicate a stabilization of the party's ideological balance. The race also has implications for representation, as the district has never elected a person of color to Congress, despite its growing diversity.
As of late 2024, Representative Jan Schakowsky has not announced whether she will seek re-election in 2026. She continues to serve in Congress and fundraise for her campaign committee, which reported approximately $350,000 cash on hand in mid-2024. Potential candidates are likely conducting private polling and having conversations with donors and political operatives, but no formal campaigns have been launched. The Illinois primary election is scheduled for March 17, 2026, with candidate filing deadlines in late 2025. Local political observers are watching for signs of activity from figures like former State Senator Daniel Biss or State Representative Kelly Cassidy. The Chicago Democratic Socialists of America has not endorsed any candidate for the seat but has been building organizational capacity in parts of the district.
The Illinois primary election for the 2026 congressional races is scheduled for March 17, 2026. This includes the Democratic primary for Illinois's 9th congressional district. Candidates must file nomination petitions by deadlines in late 2025.
As of late 2024, Representative Jan Schakowsky has not announced whether she will retire or seek re-election in 2026. She will be 82 years old during the 2026 election cycle, which has led to speculation about a potential open seat.
The 9th district covers parts of Chicago's North Side including Lakeview, Uptown, and Rogers Park, plus northern suburbs like Evanston, Skokie, Morton Grove, and Niles. The district stretches along Lake Michigan from Chicago into suburban Cook County.
A competitive Democratic primary in Illinois's 9th district typically requires at least $500,000 to $1 million for media, staff, and outreach. The 1998 open seat primary between Jan Schakowsky and Howard Carroll saw combined spending exceeding $2 million in today's dollars.
The Cook County Democratic Party, chaired by Toni Preckwinkle, often makes endorsements in congressional primaries. Their support can provide organizational resources and ballot access, though progressive challengers have sometimes defeated party-backed candidates in recent years.
Illinois has a semi-open primary system. Voters do not register by party, but they must publicly request either a Democratic or Republican ballot when they vote. This system allows independent voters to participate in party primaries.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?ARB | 68% | 64% | 5% |
Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?ARB | 24% | 20% | 4% |
Will Laura Fine be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?ARB | 8% | 13% | 5% |
Will Jan Schakowsky be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | 1% | 1% | 0% |
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In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IL-9 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. An
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announ

If Daniel Biss wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IL-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Daniel Biss wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announ

If Kat Abughazaleh wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IL-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Kat Abughazaleh wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announ

If Laura Fine wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IL-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Laura Fine wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announ

If Jan Schakowsky wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IL-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Jan Schakowsky wins the party's nomination.
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