XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
PM $0
1
1
XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract on Polymarket, titled "XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream, and the contract states that it concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Outcomes are therefore defined by that specific data stream, not by exchange prices or other XRP price feeds.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z [1]. Readers should compare this UTC timestamp with the Eastern Time window in the title before relying on it.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T07:54:07.222Z [1]. The observation time is when the provider data was recorded. The retrieval time is when this record was saved. Neither is a live price, and the contract was still active according to the provider status at the time of the snapshot.
The snapshot shows Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. These are recorded prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the sample contains only this one market, no comparison with other contracts or platforms is available. The saved data does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved.
Coverage is complete for this saved event: one market was found and one was included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. This describes the saved provider event only. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for XRP price movements.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show prices after the observation time, so the current market state is unknown. It also provides no information on why prices stood where they did, news affecting XRP, or the likely direction of the price stream. Because the contract resolves on a TWAP compared with the starting price, the outcome depends on the Chainlink data stream during the specified window, which has not yet been observed in this evidence. Any reading of this snapshot should be limited to the recorded rules and the recorded prices at the stated times.
References
- Polymarket: XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market asks whether the price of XRP against US dollars will finish a specific four-hour window higher or lower than where it started. The contract is titled "XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET" and is listed on Polymarket in the crypto category [1]. Its resolution is tied to a single data feed rather than to general market prices. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. If not, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measure is therefore an average over the window, compared with a starting reference, rather than a simple comparison of the price at the start and the end. A price that rises early in the window and then falls back may still produce an "Up" result if the average stays at or above the starting level, and the reverse can also occur. The contract specifies that the TWAP comes from Chainlink's XRP/USD data stream, which the source describes as a TWAP data stream with 60-second intervals [1]. The contract also states that other sources or spot markets are not the reference, so prices on exchanges do not determine the outcome [1]. The listed end time for the market is 2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z, and the provider reports its status as active [1]. That end time marks the close of the window in the contract terms. It does not show when the result was published or confirmed.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of XRP's price over a short, fixed window, using a Chainlink TWAP data stream as the official reference [1]. Because the reference is an average over the window and is compared with the price at the start of the window, the result depends on the path of the price during those four hours, not only on its final value [1]. Users who read the contract should check the resolution source named in the rules, since the contract explicitly excludes other sources and spot markets from determining the outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of XRP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream [1].
Do exchange prices or other spot markets determine the result?
No. The contract states that it concerns the price according to the Chainlink TWAP data stream for XRP/USD, not any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the market end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
PM $112.22M · K 24.56M contractsWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.