Name: Will SOFR hit __ in March?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Will SOFR hit __ in March? | PredictPedia

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8 markets tracked

Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?	Poly	52%
Will SOFR hit 3.74% (High) between March 1 and March 31?	Poly	50%
Will SOFR hit 3.80% (High) between March 1 and March 31?	Poly	48%
Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between March 1 and March 31?	Poly	48%
Will SOFR hit 3.78% (High) between March 1 and March 31?	Poly	6%
Will SOFR hit 3.62% (Low) between March 1 and March 31?	Poly	4%
Will SOFR hit 3.60% (Low) between March 1 and March 31?	Poly	1%
Will SOFR hit 3.58% (Low) between March 1 and March 31?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will SOFR hit __ in March?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.57)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between March 1 and March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SOFR hit 3.60% (Low) between March 1 and March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $361
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SOFR hit 3.78% (High) between March 1 and March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SOFR hit 3.74% (High) between March 1 and March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will SOFR hit 3.62% (Low) between March 1 and March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will SOFR hit 3.58% (Low) between March 1 and March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will SOFR hit 3.80% (High) between March 1 and March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $529
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

1d 11h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

26¢

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Will SOFR hit __ in March?

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Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Will SOFR hit __ in March?

Markets (8)

Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.74% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.74% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.80% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.80% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.78% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.78% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

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Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will SOFR hit __ in March?

Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.72% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.74% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.74% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.80% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.80% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.78% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

Will SOFR hit 3.78% (High) between March 1 and March 31?

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