GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Name: Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$290.27K

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Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Vol

$290.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $290.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $290.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	23%
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	14%
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	14%
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	13%
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	12%
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	10%
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	7%
Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	3%
Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	3%
Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$290.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the par

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. 

The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.

Seats are attributed to the par

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. 

The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voti"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $290.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $182.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.59)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $35.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $13.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $32.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $25.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $40.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $15.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $11.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $59.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $24.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $31.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics