Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026

Total Volume

$13.64K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026

Vol

$13.64K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.64K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $13.64K

100%

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19 markets tracked

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

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Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 70,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 70,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 69,500 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 69,000 MW?	Kalshi	100%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?	Kalshi	1%
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,500 MW?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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100%

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$13.64K

Volume

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About This Event

October 11, 2026 If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 is above X MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 11, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 11, 2026

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 is above X MW, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 11, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 is above 

78,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 77,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $150
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 77,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 76,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 76,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $103
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 75,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 75,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $103
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 74,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 74,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $729
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $413
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $887
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 70,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 70,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 69,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 69,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026

Volume$13.64K

Markets19

19 of 19

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KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 is above 73,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 is above 72,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 is above 72,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 is above 71,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

KALSHI

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIOther

CLOSING SOON

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?

If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 is above 71,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report publish

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Y1ov0-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026"></iframe>

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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026

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Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

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Events (1)

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026

Markets (19)

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?

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Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 11, 2026

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 73,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 72,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,500 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 11, 2026 be above 71,000 MW?

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