Iran coup attempt by June 30? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Name: Iran coup attempt by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$38.51K

Events

Markets

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Iran coup attempt by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $38.51K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $38.51K

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Poly	33%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$38.51K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general un

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iran coup attempt by June 30?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (165 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general un

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or ot"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $38.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.89)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Iran coup attempt by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $38.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

164d 12h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

33¢

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Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

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Iran coup attempt by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)